Staples, utilities push SPI higher by 3.95% YoY

Inflationary pressures persisted in the country as the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended September 25, 2025 recorded a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 3.95%, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The weekly inflation gauge, which tracks movement in prices of 51 essential items across 17 urban centres, highlighted a mixed trend where notable food and utility price hikes offset declines in perishable items.

PBS data showed that the largest annual increase was observed in many essential and household items. Prices of ladies' sandals surged by 55.62%, while tomatoes soared by 53.61% compared to the same period of last year.

Among kitchen staples, sugar rose by 31.90% and wheat flour by 17.36%, exacerbating the burden on low- and middle-income households. Utility costs also spiked, with gas charges for Q1 up by 29.85% and diesel prices climbing 9.51%.

Other contributors to the YoY increase included pulse moong (16.67%), gur (12.15%), beef (12.04%), firewood (11.77%), and vegetable ghee in 1kg and 2.5kg categories, which were up 11.09% and 11.37%, respectively. Prices of cooking oil rose by 9.01%.

At the same time, some essential commodities provided relief, registering steep declines compared to last year. Onion prices fell sharply by 42.39%, while garlic dropped 27.95%.

Energy charges also reflected some decline, as electricity costs for Q1 were down 26.26% YoY. Other food items showing double-digit reductions included pulse gram (-22.65%), chicken (-22.33%), pulse mash (-19.81%), and potatoes (-18.04%).

Imported tea prices also retreated, with Lipton Yellow Label down 17.93%. These decreases helped temper the overall impact of inflation.

On a week-on-week (WoW) basis, the SPI posted a slight decline of 0.16%, driven largely by fresh decreases in perishable items. Prices of chicken fell 12.46%, followed by bananas (-4.22%), potatoes (-2.44%), and onions (-1.61%). Other modest weekly declines were noted in liquefied petroleum gas (-0.65%), garlic (-0.61%), and a range of pulses.

Meanwhile, several essentials witnessed increases during the week, including tomatoes (+9.04%), eggs (+0.88%), wheat flour (+0.76%), gur (+0.64%), and powdered milk (+0.58%). Non-food items such as washing soap (+0.47%) and lawn fabric (+0.17%) also recorded upticks, highlighting the broad-based nature of price pressures.

By income group, the impact of inflation varied, with the SPI rising 3.75% YoY for the lowest quintile and 3.21% YoY for the highest. Middle-income groups, however, faced relatively sharper increases of around 4.7%.

On a WoW basis, all quintiles, except for the lowest, recorded declines, with the heaviest drop of 0.21% in the highest income group.

Taurus Securities, in its recent report, expressed expectation that the headline inflation for the month of September 2025 would arrive at 4.9% YoY and 1.3% month-on-month, the highest reading since October 2024, driven by the surge in food inflation mainly in the aftermath of the catastrophic monsoon floods. Hence, the fiscal year-to-date Consumer Price Index (CPI) will reach 4% YoY.