'Choose growth in 5G spectrum auction'

The Ministry of IT and Telecom has been committed to ensuring that the spectrum policy supports the versatile requirements of the growing Pakistani economy – from small businesses to freelancers; the internet is the engine that makes the world go round, says Parvez Iftikhar, a consultant for the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank in an article.

"So whilst the spectrum is the fuel of our economy, it is invariably more than just balancing a budget line. The facts are simple and can't be disputed: It is smarter to manage the auction to maximise long-term investment and usage, because that will consequently mean faster networks, incremental jobs, and for the government: more tax revenue. With a one-off windfall, it is more likely to collect headlines today and then, pay with slower growth tomorrow," he says.

Let us review the present scenario – Pakistan's operators currently hold about 274 MHz, which is unfortunately amongst the lowest assignments in Asia-Pacific which otherwise lie largely in the 900 and 1800 bands. The next planned auction will open 600+ MHz, 2300/2600 MHz and 3.5 GHz, and the aim is to complete this by year-end. The idea is that the supply inevitably moves from paper to towers swiftly.

Yet, quality is where citizens predictably feel the gap. Independent measurements show typical mobile download speeds in the mid-teens mbps, a clear symptom of congested mid-band capacity.

For small businesses, the dilemma is unmistakably clear: they thrive on quick turnaround times and are not able to reliably upload data. In much the same way, farmers, whom we are painstakingly looking to educate through technology, cannot stream advisory videos or information, which consequently challenges our goals as the ministry as well as their productivity.

Add thin sector economics like ARPU around Rs302/month last year and it is crystal clear why every rupee of capex must go into rollout and not inflated licence fees.

The growth case is compelling. Industry analysis for Pakistan estimates that leaving spectrum unsold or delaying assignments costs $1.8 billion in GDP over two years, rising to $4.3 billion over five years. That is by far, bigger than any marginal gain from pushing up reserve prices. Therefore, it is advisable to price for uptake and rapid deployment, and not for scarcity.