Mismanagement fuels floods

Pakistan is blessed with an amazing geo-ecological terrain, stretching from sea level in the south to the towering heights of K2 in the north. This makes Pakistan unique, ranking world No 1 in the difference between the highest and lowest points of its watershed.

The highest point lies at 28,200 feet at K2, while the lowest point is at zero elevation in Karachi. This vast ecological and climatic range allows Pakistan to avail food security, forestry and vegetation change in time and space. Water originates in the north from melting glaciers, snowfall, and rainfall, flowing under gravity through a vast network of streams and rivers into the Arabian Sea. This network, known as a watershed, provides vital social, economic, and ecological benefits.

The largest of these systems is the Indus basin, which begins deep in the Himalayas and flows through Punjab and Sindh before draining into the Arabian Sea. The Indus River, stretching more than 1,700 kilometres, provides a single drainage system for the entire country.

The Indus is fed by major rivers including Jhelum, Kabul, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej, along with several smaller rivers from both banks. The river also carries the legacy of the Indus Valley Civilisation. Archaeological remains such as Taxila, Harappa, and Mohenjo-Daro testify to the ancient settlements it nurtured.

With an annual runoff of 154 million acre-feet, the Indus system is the backbone of Pakistan's biodiversity, agriculture, and life support. It is also capable of functioning as a powerful energy engine for the country.

Yet during floods, little attention is paid to the institutions responsible for their prevention. The Federal Flood Commission, under the Ministry of Water Resources, is responsible for the development and maintenance of flood protection systems. It coordinates flood planning, management, forecasts, and early warnings with provinces and international partners.

Provincial Irrigation Departments also hold jurisdiction over rivers and canals, enforcing laws and managing resources on the ground. Punjab's Irrigation Department, the strongest among them, is the custodian of all rivers flowing through the province. Yet, its role remains invisible during crises. Media debates and government briefings rarely mention them. The Punjab Irrigation Department is responsible for forecasting floods, coordinating with the federal ministry, IRSA, and even India under the Indus Waters Treaty. It is also responsible for managing rivers, canals, and floodplains, controlling encroachments, and developing strategies for flood control.

For example, kacha lands are designated as high flood zones, yet are often used for farming or occupied by homeless groups and outlaws. Worse, housing colonies have been constructed inside riverbeds, including the Ravi. These violations have increased flood risks. Where were the concerned engineers when such projects were allowed? Who approved this breach of law?

Pakistan remains an agricultural economy, with 70% of its population dependent on farming. Water storage is essential to sustain this livelihood. In 2003, the combined storage capacity of Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma reservoirs stood at 13.64 MAF, just 9% of the total 154 MAF annual runoff. By contrast, the global average of water storage is 40% of total runoff, amounting to 8,000 MAF.

The flow of the Indus fluctuates between 50,000 and 1.2 million cusecs. Ideally, a steady flow of 292,987 cusecs year-round could be maintained given Pakistan's watershed dynamics. This regulation could generate around 50,000 MW of hydropower. Such potential remains untapped. Internationally, Agenda 21 has classified Pakistan's northern mountain system as a fragile ecosystem needing special care. Effective watershed management can regulate water flows using various techniques. Planting indigenous species and bamboo along rivers and tributaries can withstand flood pressure, prevent erosion, and enrich soils. Such vegetation also provides a protective cover for the land, helping reduce damage.

Forestry on private and community-owned land can be promoted at little cost. With saplings and technical advice from government, landowners can plant and protect trees along the river system.

Flood protection must be based on long-term strategies. These include relocating populations from permanently flood-prone zones to safer areas, installing nets on mountains in cloudburst-prone districts to reduce debris flows, constructing small and check dams at feasible sites, and launching projects to clear waterways of flood debris and sand. Despite decades of recurring floods, watershed management has received negligible investment.

Now, is the time to integrate watershed planning into national priorities. Pakistan has already approved the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), which emphasizes water resource management. Watershed projects should be central to this plan. International climate financing can support these efforts.

The Loss and Damage Fund, approved at COP28 in Dubai and announced at COP29 in Sharm el-Sheikh, was a direct outcome of Pakistan's proposal after the devastating 2022 floods. Pakistan is well positioned to benefit. Additional opportunities lie in the Adaptation Fund, Green Climate Fund, and other bilateral and multilateral mechanisms.

Domestically, government must prioritise water and watershed management through plantation of indigenous species, soil conservation, building check dams, reducing surface runoff, and increasing groundwater infiltration across the Indus basin. The scale of flood damages demands planning, awareness, and investment.

The successful models of Tarbela and Mangla watershed management demonstrate how afforestation, soil conservation, and community involvement can reduce risks. These should be replicated across the country.

For success, coordination is essential. Provincial Irrigation, Forestry, Revenue, and Planning Departments must collaborate with the Federal Water Resources Ministry, Federal Flood Commission, and the Ministry of Climate Change to design comprehensive protection plans. Both federal and provincial governments must review institutional frameworks, strengthen existing departments, and train professionals in the use of modern early warning systems and monitoring equipment.

Pakistan stands at a critical juncture. The Indus watershed is not just a water network; it is the foundation for life, agriculture, energy, and heritage. Yet mismanagement, weak institutions, and unchecked encroachments have turned it into a recurring source of disaster.

Only through stronger watershed management, ecological restoration, and institutional reforms can the country safeguard lives, preserve resources, and secure its future against climate shocks.

THE WRITER HOLDS A PHD IN FORESTRY AND IS A CLIMATE CHANGE, FORESTRY, AND ENVIRONMENT EXPERT