Food prices push yearly SPI to 35-week high

Pakistan's weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), week ending Sep 04, 2025, increased by 1.29% week on week (WoW) and up 5.07% year on year (YoY), which is the highest YoY after 35 weeks.

Major increase was observed in the prices of tomatoes, wheat flour, onions, rice basmati broken, garlic, potatoes.

"Pakistan's Weekly SPI for the period ending Sep 04, 2025, increased by 1.29% WoW while up 5.07% YoY, which is the highest YoY after 35 weeks," noted Topline Securities.

The SPI rose by 1.29% for the combined consumption groups during the week ended September 4, 2025, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The SPI was recorded at 335.41 points compared to 331.14 points in the previous week. On a year-on-year basis, the SPI registered an increase of 5.07%, the highest annual rise in 35 weeks, reflecting renewed price pressures in essential commodities.

The PBS noted that the inflationary burden was more pronounced for lower-income households. For the lowest consumption group with monthly expenditure by 2.01% to 327.73 points, while other quintiles recorded weekly rises of 1.90%, 1.61%, 1.48%, and 0.99% respectively. This indicates that households in the lower-income brackets continue to bear the brunt of price hikes, particularly in food essentials that form a larger share of their consumption basket.

Out of the 51 essential items monitored, the prices of 23 items or 45.10% increased, 4 items or 7.84% declined, while 24 items or 47.06% remained stable during the week under review. The steepest weekly increases were observed in the prices of tomatoes, which soared 46.03%, followed by wheat flour at 25.41%and onions at 8.57%. Other notable increases included rice basmati broken at 2.62%, garlic at 2.04%, potatoes at 1.38%, pulse moong at 1.29%, and bread at 1.19%. Non-food categories also saw moderate increases, with LPG rising by 0.88%, shirting by 0.27%, long cloth by 0.17%, and lawn printed by 0.07%. In contrast, bananas declined by 3.86%, diesel by 0.91%, sugar by 0.13%, and mustard oil by 0.10%, offering limited relief.

On a yearly basis, several items remained significantly higher than last year. Tomatoes registered the steepest jump at 83.45%, followed by ladies' sandals at 55.62%, wheat flour at 30.27%, and gas charges for Q1 at 29.85%. Prices of sugar rose 27.43%, while gur, beef, pulse moong, firewood, vegetable ghee, and chicken all recorded double-digit increases. Lawn printed also edged higher by 7.72%, adding to household expenses. On the other hand, major yearly declines were recorded in onions, which fell 47%, garlic at 25.50%, pulse mash at 22.93%, potatoes at 19.25%, and pulse gram at 19.04%. Other notable declines included electricity charges for Q1 at 18.12%, tea packet at 17.93%, pulse masoor at 6.07%, rice IRRI-6/9 at 4.60%, and LPG at 3.71%.

Analysts point out that while weekly inflation is largely being driven by volatility in perishable food items such as tomatoes and wheat flour, the broader year-on-year jump raises concerns about persistent cost-of-living pressures. With inflation hitting its highest yearly spike in over eight months, the government faces a growing challenge in protecting lower-income households from food price shocks.