SCO Summit and the geopolitical road ahead

The 25th SCO Summit is scheduled to be held in Tianjin, China, from August 31 to September 1, 2025. This much-awaited summit needs to be seen in the context of not only what China is doing but also the geopolitical alignment that India might be seeking. The last time PM Modi of India attended an SCO summit in person was in 2022. The 2023 SCO Heads of State Summit was held virtually, with PM Modi chairing it.

One of the reasons that brings Modi back to SCO and most importantly, to China, the host country, is the 50% tariff snub it got from President Trump. India considered this American act as unjust and irresponsible. Unjust because China is the largest importer of Russian oil, yet it is not sanctioned, but India was. So the diplomatic response by India was in line with how it chose to serve its national interest. We will not be told whom we can buy from and from whom we cannot, said India, thus laying the ground for seeking strategic autonomy. Modi heads to China, understanding the geopolitical weight of the SCO. If India won't export to the US, it will seek alternative markets of the SCO and BRICs as well as access to their resources and the energy reserves.

India's refusal to join BRI is based on the fact that such an action would undermine its sovereignty. CPEC is the flagship project of BRI, and India fears that joining BRI might legitimise Pakistan's claim over the disputed Kashmir territory that India claims and Pakistan holds. If India is seeking a broad geopolitical alignment, which means mending its relations with China despite the territorial and land disputes with it, then the circle of this broad geopolitical alignment will not be complete unless India considers mending its relations with Pakistan as well.

Events shape geopolitical trends. The upcoming Head of States SCO Summit is one such event that will definitely contribute to accelerating the geopolitical trend of the demise of American primacy. This SCO summit is unique in the sense that twenty countries are participating in it – the largest number to have ever participated in an SCO summit. This is the beginning, and with every subsequent year, the number of countries attending may rise. Both SCO and BRICS and their membership are likely to become bigger and larger as their attractive economies suck in more and more countries of the Global South.

There is this old quote that a common enemy brings the adversaries together. In the changing geopolitical structure of the world, the US is likely to stand out not as the common enemy but as a losing global hegemon that may be left stranded because it fails to get its act together. Already, SCO and BRICs together hold 35% of the total share of the global output, which is 8% more than the 27% of the same output that G-7 countries hold.

Global North was considered the core, and Global South was the gap. But given this difference in share of the global output by the countries of the Global South, the rich core of the global economy seems to be gradually shifting towards the Global South. Demographically as well, the US represents 4.5% of the world's population while China, Russia and India combined represent almost 40% of the world's population. What SCO and BRICS member countries can initiate as a geopolitical trend is similar to a geopolitical trend that the US initiated after World War II.

Within a week of the Allied forces victory, the US cancelled its Land-Lease Program for Britain and replaced it with a loan on commercial terms that Britain could not afford. The US action clearly suggested that a rising power was capitalising on the demise and loss of status of a declining power. Whatever indignity was left for Britain to suffer, as a declining power, was completed when, in 1956, the Anglo-French invasion was undertaken to retake the Suez Canal, which was nationalised by Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser. President Eisenhower of the US didn't like Britain's idea of undertaking the invasion of a strategically important zone without prior consultation. Britain's global aspirations ended when it was forced to withdraw its forces. Post Suez Canal withdrawal, the geopolitical trend of Britain's decline and demise as a great power reached its culminating point.

Currently, there is no Land-Lease agreement between the existing three great powers and India as a rising power. What the major powers in SCO and BRICS can do is understand that there can be differences but not disputes, that there can be competition but not conflict. The US Achilles heel is based on misunderstanding this concept. It has become too powerful to resist the temptation of projecting its power in all the negative ways. India is the only country in the world that has been subjected to 50% tariffs, which is an act that is both humiliating and provocative. By imposing huge tariffs on India, all that the US has done is push India into the Russo-Sino orbit.

Two days after the end of the SCO summit, China celebrates its victory over Japan in a victory day parade. There is also a Modi-Putin Summit scheduled in India later this year. India will also act as the host nation for BRICS in 2026. So, there are many opportunities for one-on-one meetings between these leaders of the Global South.

As the world travels down the geopolitical road, the US stands out as a great power that is a borrower and under $35 trillion in debt, which is way more than the annual output of its goods and services. The tariffs and the sanctions that it has imposed is already bringing together 60% of the world's population that holds 38% of the world's GDP. The world is witnessing a change. The SCO Summit and similar events showcase that change. It is not only the aspiration for change but also how that change is brought about, which is more important.

No change can be brought about unless the leaders of great powers create conditions for that change to be put into practice. Under the changing geopolitical conditions, the onus lies with India not only to mend its ways with China but also with Pakistan. If this is done, the road ahead can only be one of regional peace and prosperity.