Punjab holds its breath as rivers surge

Authorities on Tuesday placed the disaster management institutions and related agencies on "high alert" warning of "exceptionally high" inundation risks across Punjab, following a mix of relentless monsoon rains, glacial melt, and India's release of water from multiple upstream dams.

Provincial and federal authorities said nearly 190,000 people have already been evacuated, with the military assisting in rescue operations across dozens of inundated villages. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) warned that the next 48 to 72 hours will be critical as heavy rainfall continues and dam discharges accelerate.

The latest crisis comes as the Rivers Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej — eastern tributaries of the Indus basin — surged to dangerous levels, threatening Punjab's agricultural heartland, which supplies a major share of the country's food.

NDMA Chairman Lt Gen Inam Haider told reporters in Islamabad that a large-scale evacuation drive was under way in collaboration with Punjab's PDMA and Rescue 1122. "Almost 190,000 people have been relocated to safer areas from high-risk zones along the River Sutlej," he said.

"All relevant departments remain on high alert," he added. He cautioned that the ongoing eighth spell of the monsoon season posed particular dangers, as unusually heavy rainfall was forecast for districts that typically remained dry.

"Excessive rains are expected in Sialkot, Narowal, Kasur, and adjoining areas over the next two to three days. This raises the risk of urban flooding and serious damage to infrastructure," he added. He urged the public to stay vigilant, avoid low-lying areas, and strictly follow official advisories and alerts.

According to the Punjab Irrigation Department, inflows at Marala Headworks on the Chenab surged past 400,000 cusecs, with forecasts suggesting levels could rise to 600,000 cusecs by Tuesday night — a "severe flood" stage. Downstream, medium-to-high flood levels were reported at Khanki and Qadirabad.

The Ravi River also remains under pressure, with floodwaters from tributaries including Bein, Basantar, and Dek pushing levels to 190,000 cusecs at Kot Naina, expected to climb beyond 240,000 cusecs. A flood wave was projected to hit Jassar within hours.

In the Sutlej basin, meanwhile, discharges from Pong and Bhakra dams in India's northern Himachal Pradesh state, raised levels at Ganda Singh Wala to nearly 189,000 cusecs, projected to climb beyond 220,000 cusecs.

Pong Dam has already reached its full reservoir level of 1,390 feet, while Bhakra Dam stands at 1,671 feet, only 9 feet short of its maximum. The Bhakra Beas Management Board has cautioned that if levels cross the buffer mark, outflows could jump above 80,000 cusecs, intensifying flood risks downstream.

The PDMA confirmed that all gates of India's Thein [Ranjit Sagar] Dam had been opened, releasing 77,000 cusecs into the Ravi. Pakistani officials voiced concern that water releases by India without adequate coordination could aggravate the crisis.

Punjab's Irrigation Minister Kazim Raza Pirzada said climate change was compounding the crisis. "Catchment areas are receiving heavier and more intense rainfall bursts than in the past. Our eastern rivers are overwhelmed by both rainfall and glacial melt," he told reporters.

Evacuation operations continued through Tuesday in low-lying districts. Sialkot Deputy Commissioner Saba Asghar Ali, after visiting Pasrur city near the Indian border, said 16 villages were currently at risk, and "evacuation of about 5,000 people and 1,450 livestock is being ensured."

Army units are helping move stranded residents, while local administrations are mobilising shelters and food supplies. Arrangements had been made for food, medicines, and sanitation in relief camps, Ali said. The NDMA said federal stockpiles of tents, rations, and medicines had been dispatched to Punjab.

Officials said that no deaths had yet been reported in the Sutlej-affected districts due to timely evacuations. However, the overall toll from this year's monsoon across Pakistan has reached 802 fatalities, nearly half of them in August alone.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired an emergency meeting, directing authorities to accelerate rescue and relief operations. "Evacuation must be expedited, food and medical care provided without delay, and tents supplied to all displaced families," the prime minister ordered.

He also instructed the NDMA to maintain close coordination with Punjab's PDMA and directed power and communication ministries to restore disrupted services in flood-hit areas, according to a handout issued by the Prime Minister Office.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) warned of widespread rain, wind, and thunderstorms on Wednesday (today) across northeast Punjab and Kashmir, with isolated showers in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), central Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh.

Heavy falls could trigger urban flooding in Lahore, Sialkot, Narowal, Gujranwala, Gujrat, and Jhelum, while landslides may block roads in hilly areas of Rawalakot, Poonch, Kotli, Bhimber, and Mirpur, the PMD warned.

In the last 24 hours, Sialkot recorded 228 mm of rain, Lahore up to 61 mm, and Narowal 107 mm. Officials warned further rainfall, couple with water released by India, would worsen already saturated river systems.

With rivers swelling from both natural and geopolitical pressures, the NDMA Chairman summed up the urgency, saying: "The flood situation is grave. The next 48 to 72 hours will be critical for Punjab. We urge the public to remain vigilant and cooperate with authorities."

Lt Gen Haider noted that all tehsils in vulnerable areas had been placed on alert, with federal resources backing provincial and district authorities. Once the monsoon spell subsides, he said, displaced families would be able to return home.

(WITH INPUT FROM AGENCIES)