Russia rolls a geopolitical dice

Pakistan presented its first National Security Policy (NSP) in January 2022. The policy emphasised a shift to economic security and a citizen-centric approach. Former National Security Advisor Moeed Yousaf led the idea of recognising that economic security was crucial for overall national security. Seen in the context of Pakistan's foreign policy towards Afghanistan, it is hard to understand how geo-economics can precede geopolitics.

Pakistan provides Afghanistan its primary transit route, serves as its largest export market and acts as its principal diplomatic emissary to the world. It's not just geo-economics but geopolitics that binds both countries in a not-so-friendly but enduring relationship. In the matter of Afghanistan, a recent geopolitical event is dominating the current discourse on Afghanistan.

Russia has recently rolled a geopolitical dice that may have far-reaching regional and global implications. By according diplomatic recognition to the Taliban regime, the first by any country, the Russian dice puts on spot the very idea of international consensus led by the US not to do so. It is not just Russia but China also that is supporting the idea of developing a regional consensus in treating the Taliban not just as a military movement or a rogue regime but as a responsible political force that can be trusted with the process of state-building.

Countries in the Russian and Chinese sphere of influence must already have sensed the bigger picture behind the Russian idea of the roll of this dice. With one roll of the dice, Russia has indicated that it is ready to forego all the historical animosity and grievances that have overshadowed its relationship with Afghanistan. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, a million Afghans were killed, a million and a half were wounded, three million sought refuge in Iran and Pakistan, and an unknown number were internally displaced — all out of a population of fewer than 20 million people.

Yet both Russia and Afghanistan have decided to move beyond their historical grievances, and Russia, by recognising the Taliban's government, has laid the foundation for helping the Taliban in transitioning from a military movement to becoming an internationally recognised legitimate political force. The dice roller in this case would not do that without a specific agenda. What can be on that agenda?

Russia and China, together, are throwing up a challenge to the US-led international consensus against diplomatic normalisation with the Taliban regime. The diplomatic engagement and support that both Russia and China have chosen to offer to Afghanistan stems from the rising tensions between the global north and global south and backs these two great powers' driven narrative of 'the rise of the rest against the west'.

On the question of Afghanistan, China is utilising geopolitics to create the right conditions to enable its geo-economic strategies. In January 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping accepted the credentials of the Taliban's newly appointed Afghan ambassador to China. The message that China sent to the world was clear: China does not believe that Afghanistan should be excluded from the international community.

Geo-economically, China doesn't want uncertainty in Afghanistan to upset its plans for Central and South Asia, and it would do everything to politically and diplomatically engage with the Taliban to ensure that the insecurity radiating out of Afghanistan does not undermine its billions of dollars of investment in its neighbouring country, Pakistan. An Afghanistan, supported politically and engaged diplomatically, will ensure that China's largest BRI project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which runs through areas near the Afghan border, is not vulnerable to strikes from Pakistani Taliban rebels. If China also recognises the Taliban government, would a broader wave of recognition follow?

The diplomatic engagement and support that both Russia and China have chosen to offer to Afghanistan stems from the rising tensions with the US, which has made the possibility of normalisation of its relations with the current Taliban regime explicitly conditional. America's Afghan policy is driven by ensuring a global endorsement that the world will stay united in holding the Taliban to their commitments in key areas.

Three key areas that the US wants the Taliban to deliver in are: not allowing Afghan land to be used for terrorist activities abroad and giving up violence as an instrument of power; respecting human rights; and undoing its policy of depriving women of their rights.

In contrast, the diplomatic olive branch that both Russia and China have offered to the Taliban regime goes against the US-driven international commitment. Seen from the perspective of increased disengagement of the US and Western powers from Afghanistan, the Russian roll of this geopolitical dice may induce a domino effect of more and more countries joining hands with Russia and China in elevating the Taliban's status from being considered as a rogue regime to being accepted as a responsible political force.

Geo-economically, Russia is planning to raise the bar of its bilateral trade with Afghanistan from the current $1 billion annual to $3 billion by the end of this year. Afghanistan acts as an important transit corridor for Russia. If Afghanistan gets its act together, it can play a significant role in enabling regional connectivity and providing access to Russian oil and wheat to the South Asian markets.

In April this year, Russia, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan have already signed agreements to launch the Trans-Afghan Railway, reaffirming the strategic importance of Afghanistan in regional connectivity. Russia's actions may fundamentally reshape the global community's stance on Afghanistan. President Trump's idea of rolling a tariff dice is already being viewed with contempt by many countries in the world. India has also been put on the spot as its exports have been subjected to a 25% tariff, and the seven Indian companies that imported oil from Russia have been put under sanctions. Will this encourage India to distance itself from American relations? It is already a defence and strategic partner of Russia; will it bring a shift in its relations with China?

Pakistan's current government enjoys good relations with the current American administration, and considering that Pakistan is also part of the international consensus against the Taliban regime, what will be the response of Pakistan's establishment to this Russian roll of geopolitical dice? We will have to wait and see.