Gas, sugar and footwear drive annual SPI higher

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) recorded a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 1.98% for the week ended July 31, 2025, reflecting mixed trends across essential commodities. Notable price hikes were seen in gas, sugar, pulses, beef and vegetable ghee, while non-food items like ladies’ sandals registered the biggest increase of 55.62%.

On a YoY basis, gas charges for the first quarter rose 29.85%, sugar 21.66%, pulse moong 14.27%, beef 14.16%, 2.5kg vegetable ghee 12.33%, 1kg vegetable ghee 11.95%, firewood 11.75%, gur 11.23%, eggs (10.94%), cooked beef (9.31%) and printed lawn (7.32%).

In contrast, a major YoY decrease was observed in prices of onions (-49.32%), tomatoes (-42.31%), garlic (-23.78%), wheat flour (-22.90%), pulse mash (-21.40%), Lipton tea (-17.93%), potatoes (-15.95%), chicken (-11.71%), electricity charges for Q1 (-10.02%) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, -0.86%).

The data, compiled from 50 markets across 17 cities, indicates continued volatility in food prices, though the headline weekly inflation showed some moderation due to seasonal and market-driven factors.

The week-on-week inflation, measured through the SPI, fell 0.35% for the week ended July 31, 2025, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The decline was mainly driven by a significant drop in prices of perishable and essential food items, including tomatoes (-17.26%), chicken (-4.76%), bananas (-2.97%) and moong pulse (-1.55%). Prices of LPG (-1.39%) and wheat flour (-0.59%) also declined.

Out of the 51 essential items tracked, prices of 12 items fell, 11 items recorded an increase and 28 items remained unchanged. Notable increases were seen in eggs (+1.80%), firewood (+1.11%) and cooked beef (+1.08%).

The weekly SPI declined across all income groups, with the lowest quintiles (Q1 and Q2) seeing the biggest drop of 0.42%. However, on a YoY basis, lower- and middle-income groups faced higher inflation, with Q2 showing the largest annual increase of 2.80%, while the highest-income group (Q5) saw a smaller rise of 1.23%.

The overall annual SPI rose 1.98%, reflecting continued pressure from rising prices of essentials like sugar, gas and pulses.

Meanwhile, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a YoY increase of 4.1% in July 2025, according to data released by the PBS and IIS Research. This marks a rise from the 3.2% growth recorded in June 2025 and a significant decline from the 11.1% inflation in July 2024.

Key contributors to the CPI increase include a 0.89% rise in food and non-alcoholic beverages and a 3.56% increase in clothing and footwear. Housing and household furnishings saw a 3.56% uptick, while transport costs rose 2.72%. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI rose 2.92%.

PBS data highlights a varied impact across sectors, with education, recreation and culture showing a moderate growth, while miscellaneous items surged 14.89% YoY. The overall headline CPI for July 2025 stood at 271.9 points, up from 261.3 in June.