Punjab to remain in the grip of climate events

Like many countries in the Global South, Pakistan too is currently bearing the heavy brunt of climate change. While heatwaves are the most visible manifestation of extreme temperatures, this year the unprecedented duration and intensity of the monsoon season has raised alarm bells among meteorologists.

Climate experts are of the opinion that climate change is severely impacting Pakistan, particularly the province of Punjab, where rainfall has been unusually heavy and frequent. Compared to previous years, rainfall records have surpassed normal levels in areas that previously saw less intense weather since the increase in global temperatures has disrupted the monsoon system in the region. In particular, rising temperatures in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean have led to more moisture-laden monsoon winds, resulting in heavier and more prolonged downpours.

PDMA spokesperson Chaudhry Mazhar confirmed that the monsoon season started earlier than usual this year. “Typically, the monsoon season begins around July 15, but in 2025 it began as early as June 25 – previously considered a pre-monsoon phase. This year’s early rains were exceptionally intense, and now it is expected that the monsoon will continue until at least mid-September. Every monsoon downpour this year has been extremely strong, breaking previous rainfall records – and the trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks,” warned Mazhar.

According to the latest figures obtained from the Meteorological Department and the Punjab Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), Chakwal district recorded 423mm of rainfall in a single day between the night of July 16th and 17th; the highest in any one location in Punjab this season. During the first half of July 2025, rainfall in Punjab exceeded normal levels by 73 per cent. Reports from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and PDMA have indicated that in the fourth spell of the monsoon, not just Punjab but the entire country received far more rainfall than the seasonal average. Overall, Punjab has seen a 30 to 36 per cent increase in rainfall this season compared to previous years.

Meteorologists have estimated that if normal monsoon rainfall for Punjab is between 800–900mm, the total this year has already crossed 1,000mm and could reach 1,200mm by the end of the season. Despite alerts issued from the Meteorological Department and PDMA, local administrations were unprepared for the unprecedented downpours and are now reacting to it as though it were a natural disaster.

Dr Saadia Khalid, a climate change expert, stated that monsoon rains have become more powerful and are now following unconventional routes. “This is why regions like Punjab, which rarely saw such intense rain, are now experiencing a sharp increase in rainfall volume and intensity. Furthermore, urbanization, deforestation, and changes in land use are worsening the impact of these rains. Major cities in Punjab have lost much of their natural water absorption capacity, making it harder to drain rainwater quickly, leading to frequent urban flooding,” noted Dr Khalid.

Hence, experts have agreed that if immediate action is not taken on carbon emissions, land management, and devising a climate policy, extreme weather patterns – including heavy rainfall and flooding – will become the new normal in Punjab.