Poultry, diesel push SPI up by 0.38%

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended July 17, 2025 recorded an increase of 0.38%, driven by notable hikes in prices of essential food and fuel items.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), chicken prices surged by 8.31%, eggs by 5.87% and diesel by 4.15%, while petrol and staples like onions, garlic and potatoes also saw upward trends.

Conversely, prices of tomatoes dropped sharply by 9.34%, bananas by 1.57% and LPG by 0.95%, providing some relief to consumers. Additionally, 20 items, including beef, vegetable ghee and electricity charges, remained stable, which indicated a mixed inflationary landscape.

Year-on-year (YoY) data showed an overall decline of 1.61% in the SPI, driven by substantial drops in prices of onions (-48.65%), tomatoes (-48.44%) and electricity charges for the lowest income group (-37.62%). However, several items recorded significant annual increases, including ladies' sandals (55.62%), sugar (27.76%) and pulses such as moong (17.91%).

The SPI's impact varied across income groups, with the lowest quintile (Q1) experiencing a modest 0.13% weekly increase, while the highest quintile (Q5) saw a 0.46% rise. Annually, Q1 recorded a 2.17% decline, whereas Q5 faced a milder drop of 0.45%, indicating that lower-income households benefited more from the reduction in prices of certain staples. Despite this, the rising costs of non-food items like footwear and textiles continue to strain household budgets, particularly for middle and upper-income groups.

Economists attribute the weekly price hikes to supply chain disruptions, seasonal factors and global fuel price fluctuations, particularly affecting perishable goods like chicken and eggs.

The annual decline in some categories reflects improved agricultural output and stabilisation in key sectors. However, the persistent rise in sugar, pulses and clothing underscores structural challenges in production and distribution.

Policymakers are urged by the public to address supply-side constraints, enhance market monitoring and implement targeted subsidies to stabilise prices for low-income families.

The PBS report underscores the need for balanced economic policies to manage inflation, particularly for essential commodities. While recent trends show some relief in food prices, the volatility in non-food items remains a concern. The government's focus on improving supply chains and controlling speculative pricing will be crucial in ensuring stable inflation in the coming months.