PSX marks 2nd week of record highs

The KSE-100 index of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) surged 2,351 points, or +2% week-on-week (WoW), to close at 134,300, marking a second week of gains driven by a strong earnings outlook, record remittances and positive macro news.

Major boosts came from a US-Pakistan trade deal, $2 billion investment from Azerbaijan and rising Panda bond expectations. The State Bank's foreign currency reserves hit a 39-month high at $14.5 billion.

Commercial banks led gains, adding 1,329 points, while cement, auto and textile sectors followed. UBL, Meezan Bank and MCB Bank were the top gainers while Bank AL Habib and Engro Fertilisers were the major drags. Average daily turnover fell 2% to 947.8 million shares and foreign investors sold $5.76 million worth of equities, but it was offset by local buying.

Among FY25 highlights were remittances hitting $38.3 billion (+27%), auto sales higher by 43% and early retiring of Rs1.5 trillion worth of debt. Analysts see continued momentum with room for profit-taking. The index trades at 6.8x forward price-to-earnings ratio, offering a 7.4% dividend yield. Top picks include OGDC, Pakistan Petroleum, Meezan Bank, MCB Bank, PSO, Hubco and Systems Limited.

On a day-on-day basis, the PSX extended its rally on Monday as the bullish momentum persisted, with the index surging 1,421 points (+1.08%) to 133,370, backed by encouraging macroeconomic signals. On the second trading day, the market shot up to a new peak above 134,000 points in intra-day dealings but it could not sustain the momentum and closed almost flat as investors offloaded their holdings to book profit.

On Wednesday, the bourse witnessed volatile trading as the benchmark KSE-100 index recorded a decline of 826 points. The market entered a phase of consolidation following recent strong rallies, fluctuating between intra-day high of 133,566 and intra-day low of 132,326. The following day, the PSX had a positive session, gaining 1,205 points in the backdrop of historic high remittances at $38 billion for FY25 and $1 billion in Islamic financing from a Dubai Islamic Bank-led consortium, marking the return to Middle Eastern markets after two years.

Consolidation continued at the market on Friday, when the index floated in both directions and ultimately closed at 134,300, reflecting a gain of 517 points.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL), in its weekly commentary, noted that the KSE-100 index continued its upward trajectory, rising steadily from 131,949 to 134,300, marking a weekly gain of 2,351 points, or 2%.

Among key developments, media reports suggested that Pakistan and the US had reached a trade and tariff deal framework ahead of the July 9 deadline, aimed at preserving market access and attracting US investment. Separately, Pakistan and Azerbaijan signed a $2 billion investment agreement during the 17th Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) Summit, with the final deal expected during Azerbaijan president's upcoming visit, AHL said.

In the energy sector, OGDCL reported a production boost at the Rajian-05 well following ESP installation. Meanwhile, workers' remittances hit a record high of over $38 billion, up 27%. In the auto sector, FY25 sales rose 43% to 148k units, with June sales reaching a 36-month high of 21.8k units, caused by a proposed sales tax hike. The State Bank's foreign exchange reserves increased $1.77 billion to $14.5 billion – a 39-month high.

The sectors that contributed positively were commercial banks (1,329 points), cement (304 points), auto assemblers (150 points), textiles (147 points) and pharmaceuticals (124 points). Meanwhile, sector-wise negative contributions came from E&P (82 points), miscellaneous (78 points), fertiliser (56 points), technology (47 points) and OMCs (39 points).

Scrip-wise, positive contributions came from UBL (417 points), Meezan Bank (297 points), MCB Bank (171 points), Habib Metropolitan Bank (150 points) and Bank Alfalah (148 points). Scrip-wise, negative contributors were Bank AL Habib (103 points), Engro Fertilisers (86 points), Pakistan Services (78 points), Mari Petroleum (60 points) and Pakistan Petroleum (54 points).

Foreign selling was witnessed during the week, which came in at $5.76 million compared to net selling of $15.33 million last week. Major selling was noted in commercial banks ($3.8 million), followed by fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies ($1.2 million). On the local front, buying was reported by mutual funds ($30.9 million) and individuals ($14.1 million), AHL added.

Syed Danyal Hussain of JS Global observed that the KSE-100 index extended its bullish run during the outgoing week, gaining 2,351 points to close at 134,300.

The rally was driven by several positive developments, including a surge in remittances, which reached an all-time high at $38.3 billion in FY25. Investor sentiment was further supported by reports of a potential understanding between Pakistan and the US on reciprocal tariffs, alongside news that a Dubai-based bank arranged a $1 billion financing for Pakistan.