SPI rises 0.95% on food price spike

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended July 10, 2025 posted a week-on-week (WoW) increase of 0.95%, driven primarily by sharp upticks in food prices, particularly perishable items.

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported that the rise was fueled by significant hikes in prices of chicken, tomatoes and onions, among other daily-use commodities.

According to the latest data, chicken prices surged 22.61%, followed by tomatoes, which rose 13.45%, onions (6.25%), potatoes (2.79%) and garlic (2.36%). Staple goods such as sugar and gur also experienced notable increases of 1.90% and 1.89%, respectively. The price of rice (Basmati broken) climbed modestly by 0.84%.

Conversely, some relief was seen in prices of household fuels and pulses. The price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) declined 2.56%, while mustard oil fell 0.81%. Similarly, pulse moong dipped 0.41% and cooking oil (five litres) dropped 0.20%. Prices of wheat flour and vegetable ghee (2.5 kg) edged down 0.02% each.

Out of the 51 essential items tracked weekly across 50 markets in 17 cities, prices of 19 items (37.25%) increased, six items (11.77%) decreased and 26 items (50.98%) remained unchanged, reflecting broad-based price fluctuations.

While the weekly SPI rose, the year-on-year (YoY) trend showed a 1.23% decrease compared to the same week last year. The YoY decline is largely attributed to sharp reductions in prices of key perishables and utilities.

The prices of onions dropped 50.04%, tomatoes fell 45.66% and electricity charges for Q1 were down 37.62%. Other significant drops included garlic (-22.80%), wheat flour (-22.19%), pulse mash (-20.46%), tea (Lipton) (-17.93%) and diesel (-1.58%).

However, the decline in headline SPI does not reflect the continued pressure on households due to persistent increases in other categories. For instance, the prices of ladies' sandals surged 55.62% YoY, sugar rose 29.17%, pulse moong climbed 18.89% and beef increased 14.71%. Prices of chicken (13.77%), gur (12.66%) and vegetable ghee (12.46%) also posted double-digit increases, highlighting the uneven inflation landscape.

Prices of firewood (10.44%), powdered milk (9.41%), lawn – printed fabric (7.89%) and shirting (7.31%) also rose over the year, which indicated broader cost-of-living pressures beyond food.

The SPI, computed weekly by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, provides a short-term view of price trends in essential consumer items, offering timely insights to policymakers to assess inflationary pressures. With 51 essential items monitored in a consistent and geographically diverse basket, the SPI is a key tool for evaluating how price changes impact household budgets, particularly for lower- and middle-income segments.

With food inflation remaining volatile and energy prices facing global and domestic uncertainties, economists warn that price stability in the coming months will depend on supply chain management, fiscal discipline and policy coordination between federal and provincial authorities.

During the week ended July 10, 2025, the lowest income group (Q1) recorded the highest WoW increase of 1.10%, followed by Q3 at 1.02%, Q2 (0.99%), Q4 (0.88%) and the highest income group (Q5) at 0.85%. The combined SPI rose 0.95% week-on-week.

On a YoY basis, the largest decline was observed in Q1, which saw a 2.79% drop, followed by Q2 at 2.41%, Q5 (1.24%), Q3 (0.59%) and Q4 with a marginal decline of 0.04%. The combined index showed a YoY decrease of 1.23%. These trends indicate that lower-income groups (Q1 and Q2) experienced comparatively sharper weekly price increases.