Bangladesh warms up to China as India fumes

Protests in Bangladesh that toppled the government last year triggered a diplomatic pivot, with Dhaka warming towards China after neighbouring India was angered by the ousting of its old ally Sheikh Hasina.

One year since the protests, that realignment risks intensifying polarisation — and fears of external interference — as political parties in Bangladesh jostle for influence ahead of elections next year.

For the caretaker government, seeking domestic consensus for overhauling democratic institutions in the country of 170 million people, it is another challenge to juggle.

"India-Bangladesh relations have probably never experienced such intense strain before," said New Delhi-based analyst Praveen Donthi, from the International Crisis Group.

There is deep resentment in Dhaka over the fate of fugitive ex-prime minister Hasina, who escaped a student-led uprising by helicopter in August 2024 and flew to New Delhi as thousands of protesters stormed her palace.

Interim leader Muhammad Yunus said popular anger in Bangladesh had been "transferred over to India" because Hasina was offered sanctuary by New Delhi's Hindu nationalist government.

Md Touhid Hossain, who heads Bangladesh's foreign ministry, said that "the relationship is now at the readjustment stage".

Nobel Peace Prize winner Yunus's first state visit was to China in March, a trip that saw him secure $2.1 billion in investments, loans and grants.

Beijing has also courted leading politicians directly.

Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a senior leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) — the expected election frontrunner — said China is "keen" to work with the next elected government with "sincerity, steadfastness, love, and affection".

Bangladesh has also moved closer to Pakistan, India's arch-enemy.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said the trio had agreed to "cooperation programmes" including in trade, industry, education and agriculture.