New abnormal

After 4 days of combat ending with a ceasefire on 10 May, India claimed to have created a "New Normal" in relations with Pakistan. In reality, this sets the stage for continued hostility between two nuclear powers; a perpetual state of suspended conflict. Such endless strategic instability under the shadow of nuclear weapons will be dangerously unpredictable since any future escalation could go beyond the nuclear threshold. This in fact is a "New Abnormal" which requires Pakistan to further strengthen its conventional and nuclear deterrence to neutralise future Indian adventurism as it did during the May crisis.

Indian allegations of Pakistan's involvement in the Pahalgam terrorist incident on 22 April were meant to justify its aggression. No evidence has been provided so far and according to their own official sources, the investigation is still ongoing. This reinforces Pakistan's assessment that this incident was an Indian false-flag operation for achieving Prime Minister Modi's internal and external objectives.

Internally, Modi sought to use the crisis for electoral mobilisation in toughly contested forthcoming state elections. A senior India's politician, Yashwant Sinha, has conceded as much in a television interview. The same tactics were used by Modi in February 2019 by staging the Pulwama terrorist incident leading to the clash with Pakistan which ensured a massive electoral victory for him.

Externally, Modi used the visit to India by US Vice President Vance to demonise Pakistan just as India had done in 2000 during President Clinton's visit by conducting the Chattisingpura massacre. The Modi government also wanted to try and derail perceived improvement in Pakistan-US relations following President Donald Trump's appreciation of Pakistan's counter-terrorism cooperation in Afghanistan and the American interest in Pakistan's mineral potential. An added objective was to weaponise water by illegally holding the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance.

However, the Indian plan backfired, diplomatically and militarily. No country, not even Indian allies like the US or Russia or those in QUAD, blamed Pakistan for the Pahalgam attack. The statement adopted by UN Security Council did not either accuse Pakistan or refer to Pahalgam as part of Indian Territory. Moreover, the Indian attack thereafter was not endorsed by any country. Instead, the international community called for a ceasefire and de-escalation. As such, India stood totally isolated.

Militarily, the outcome of the Indian aggression was even worse for Modi. While innocent Pakistani civilians were killed and some mosques were destroyed on 6-7 May, India lost six of its advanced fighter aircraft in the aerial combat. In response to subsequent Indian attacks on military targets, Pakistan carried out its own robust response in which 24 Indian military assets were destroyed or damaged. This compelled India to seek a ceasefire which was first offered by India's own army and air force spokespersons. Eventually, the Americans bailed out India by brokering a ceasefire. President Trump also called for a dialogue to resolve the Kashmir dispute and offered to mediate a solution. This proved to be a further blow for India since Modi's claim about normalcy in Kashmir was exposed along with greater international focus on the dispute as a nuclear flashpoint.

However, since Modi and his media minions had built up a frenzied war hysteria, acceptance of the ceasefire was seen as succumbing to American pressure, leading to a strong backlash against his government. Seeking damage limitation, Modi claimed that the military operation had been "paused" and that he had set a new normal or new red-line according to which India would react militarily against Pakistan in case of any terrorist attack without waiting for proof of Pakistani involvement. As such India claimed the right to act unilaterally, pre-emptively and repeatedly, behaving as judge, jury and executioner. Modi also claimed to have called Pakistan's nuclear bluff by not submitting to "nuclear blackmail". As such, India claimed to create space for military operations below the nuclear threshold.

This Indian attempt to enforce compellence and coercion against a nuclear power is both unrealistic and dangerous. The glaring fact is that Pakistan effectively deterred India through conventional means and at no point was the nuclear option even considered. More to the point, India itself avoided resort to its Cold Start or Dynamic Response doctrine for war under the nuclear threshold. As such, Pakistan did not need to implement its Full Spectrum Deterrence option. Consequently, Pakistan's conventional capabilities proved sufficient for credible deterrence. Moreover, the so-called "New Normal" ended with Indian acceptance of a ceasefire - just as in the crisis of 2001-2002 and 2019 which is not "New" by any measure.

Even objective Indian security analysts have recognised is that while nuclear deterrence prevented outbreak of a full scale war, strategic stability between the two nuclear powers has been undermined. For instance it is claimed that "mere presence of its nuclear arsenal gave Pakistan space for conventional action" and that India "climbed the escalation ladder but lacked an endgame", which "exposed the gap between Modi's bombastic rhetoric and India's strategic calculations". It is also recognised that Modi's new normal is a "hallow" doctrine without any strategic thought behind it and aimed essentially at the domestic audience.

From its perspective, Pakistan ensured that deterrence held at all levels - conventional and nuclear - reinforcing that no space exists for conventional war between nuclear powers. Pakistan also demonstrated the required conventional capability to deter a much larger military threat.

Pakistan now needs to capitalise on these developments. National defence capabilities in both conventional and strategic domains need to be continuously upgraded. In this regard, our partnership with China has proved to be invaluable which requires further enhancement. Similarly, collaboration with allies like Turkey and Azerbaijan must be strengthened. India should be actively projected on a sustained basis as a reckless rogue state that promotes terrorism in Pakistan, has weaponised water and pursues policies that undermine strategic stability, not only between nuclear powers but also other South Asian neighbours.

That is the only way to ensure national security in the future of a "New Abnormal".