Worst foreign policy decision of 21st century

There are clear indications that the world is no longer traveling on an upward track. The current journey of the world is on a downward track, and the need for an immediate course correction is the responsibility of the four great powers — the United States, China, Russia and the European Union. Liberal internationalism has failed as an order, and so has the momentum of globalisation, which has been unsuccessful in bringing the world closer together.

Democracies all over the world are degenerating, lapsing, regressing and retreating. All anti-communist dictators that the United States supported in the past and installed during the Cold War to create favorable regimes in Latin America, Africa Middle East and Asia are dead, but others wearing democratic suits have taken their place.

Nationalism, protectionism and revisionism are eating what is left of cosmopolitanism, and anti-immigration laws and racism are back as the picture posters of a world in a downward spiral. The brutality of the two World Wars forced the world to understand the importance of adherence to international norms. These norms are being set aside now with impunity, and states like Israel now demonstrate that state behaviour is no more constrained by international norms.

During the bipolar moment of the world, the world order rested on both the balance of power and legitimacy — a world conforming to laws and rules. Legitimacy today is on a downslide. That can be seen in how Israel is carrying out genocide in Gaza with absolute freedom from the consequences of its actions.

Loss of legitimacy is being demonstrated in how the war in Ukraine is being fought, or how India initiated a thoughtless and unnecessary military action against Pakistan. As if this were not enough, the US-Iran nuclear talks have failed, and one can be certain that no international rules or laws may be followed once again to punish another sovereign nation — Iran.

Notable historians and scholars of international relations with pro-Western sentiments are referring to President Xi Jinping's no limits partnership with Moscow as arguably the biggest foreign policy blunder by him since his time in power. Yet, the Chinese President's decision is a copycat of what the United States has practiced earlier.

Under the Henry Kissinger doctrine of reducing tensions with the weaker rival to concentrate on the stronger, President Nixon warmed ties with China as the United States focused on and targeted the Soviet Union. China now plans to cook the American soup with the same recipe. However, if Israel attacks Iran with or without the consent of the Americans, it will constitute the biggest foreign policy blunder of the 21st century.

Calling an unlimited partnership between two great powers a foreign policy blunder is looking at the event from a liberal lens that views revisionism as an international offence. Seen from a realist perspective, the unchallenged power that the United States enjoyed during the unipolar moment changed the dynamics of the global balance of power. The current Sino-Russo partnership is a consequence of the shift in the global balance of power that emerged when the all-powerful American might pushed the interests of the other great powers aside to make the entire world a de facto American sphere.

The United States, as a global hegemon during the unipolar moment, had three clear choices to make: create an international system of absolute American dominance of power; allow creation of an international system of shared responsibility for global peace and security; or revert to an international system of power rivalry and sphere of influence.

Until the first decade of the 21st century, Americans dragged the international system of absolute American control and dominance of power. By 2012, both President Putin and President Xi rose to power as Russia's President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, respectively. Two years later, President Putin annexed Crimea.

The moment to create an international system of shared responsibility for global peace and security was lost, and an international system of power rivalry and sphere of influence replaced the system of absolute American dominance and power. This was acknowledged by the Trump administration in 2017 when the American National Security Strategy presented in that year welcomed the return of 'great power competition'.

Today, the war in Ukraine is a classic example of a return to the clash of spheres of influence in global politics. China showcases this contest in the Eastern Pacific, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Before the greatest blunder of foreign policy of the 21st century is committed, the United States and its ally, Israel, must give due consideration to the international system in vogue.

Sphere of influence is the space where one's great power exercises dominance and control, and if an outside power wishes to challenge that, it will only be at a cost that may be too high or unbearable. In a broader geopolitical sense, a military strike at Iran will hurt the political, economic and commercial interests of the other two great powers, and it is for this reason that such a military misadventure will be disapproved and contested by the rival powers.

Russia and China will not compete or cooperate but confront any challenge posed to the sovereignty of Iran. This assumption is based on the current dynamics of regional geopolitics, regional political, economic and commercial concerns, and wider regional insecurity, which is not acceptable and tolerable to both Russia and China. Not just the two great powers but many other countries in the region may cooperate and have their foreign policy driven by this very sensitive and main agenda.

President Trump, on his part, represents himself as a liberal internationalist and a peacemaker who rejects the use of military force as a preferred instrument of policy to resolve conflicts. He favours diplomacy, and if the world needs to get back on the right track, he must not become part of committing the biggest foreign policy blunder of the 21st century. Israel's military action in Gaza has already eroded the moral authority of the United States; any military action against Iran will erode the chances of the world traveling back on an upward track.

Post Script: As the article is being submitted for publication, Israel has carried out air strikes on Iran. The worst foreign policy decision of the 21st century has been taken.