Bangladesh's growing predicament

Steps taken by the interim government of Dr Mohammad Yunus like banning Awami League, removing the picture of Bangladesh founder Sheikh Mujibur Rehman from currency notes and erasing from textbooks the role of Awami League in freedom struggle reflect a paradigm shift in Dhaka's narrative about a political party which spearheaded the country's freedom movement.

Around a year has passed since Dr Yunus took the reins of government following the exit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power and her taking refuge in India. Finally succumbing to pressure, Dr Yunus announced the holding of general elections in April 2026. Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which suffered Sheikh Hasina's wrath for more than 15 years initially supported the Yunus regime but then took an aggressive stance against it, urging Yunus to announce elections at the earliest.

Why has BNP, a beneficiary of Sheikh Hasina's exit from power, turned against Dr Yunus? What is the future of the banned Awami League? How are the fault lines in Bangladesh related to its economy, politics, governance, military and India are deepening its predicament? Dr Yunus has recently made it clear that elections will be held in April 2026 but his opponents are not ready to trust him and allege that he is trying to prolong his rule by amplifying controversial issues like banning Awami League, giving space to Islamist political parties and groups and relying too much on China for supporting the country's economy.

In order to gain some credibility for his regime, Dr Yunus in late 2024 established reform commissions aimed at bettering institutions so that meaningful general elections could be held. On February 8, 2025 Dhaka Tribune reported the formation of six reform commissions - on Constitution, Election Commission, Police Reform, Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), Public Administration and Judiciary. The reports on the commissions were also published on the Cabinet Division's website. The reform commission about political parties held several meeting but remained inconclusive. It was a gigantic task for the Yunus regime to reform centres of power as he lamented that Bangladesh is in a quandary because of rampant corruption, nepotism as well as politicisation of bureaucracy, judiciary, education and economy. Unfortunately, the reform commissions failed to move ahead. BNP alleged that the Yunus regime was trying to gain time under the cover of reform commissions.

One needs to analyse Bangladesh's growing predicament amidst the announcement of elections in April 2026 from three angles.

First, the credibility of the Yunus regime is questionable because it does not have any legal or constitutional status nor does it enjoy the public mandate. The only legitimacy is has is that when Sheikh Hasina fled to India and her government collapsed, the Supreme Court of Bangladesh allowed the President to take oath from Dr Mohammad Yunus as the caretaker Chief Adviser. In order to win some legitimacy, Yunus should have gone for a public referendum, but he continued as the head of the government and pledged to hold elections after reforming institutions latest by June 2026. Later on, he advanced the election date to April 2026. Critics argue that instead of focusing on the economy, governance and reforms, Yunus has conducted 11 foreign tours during the 10 months of his rule so far.

The Yunus regime supporters, like the newly formed National Citizens Party (NCP) of student leader Nahid Islam and Jamaat-i-Islami, feel concerned about the growing popular chagrin against the caretaker government. Initially, the Yunus regime tried to take advantage of the Awami League government's repression against the protesting students that resulted in the killing of more than 1,400 people.

Second, Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman who was supportive to the Yunus regime and provided him space to run the government is now giving a different message. In his neutral and professional position, the Army Chief cannot remain oblivious to ground realities. He has also called for early elections. According to AFP, addressing officers of Bangladesh military on May 21, the Army Chief said, "Bangladesh is passing through a chaotic phase. The situation is worsening. The structure of the civil administration and law enforcement agencies has collapsed and failed to reconstitute." He called for holding general elections by December 2025 in order to pull the country from the prevailing crisis. This clearly means loss of military support to the Yunus regime and its further fragility.

Third, India is closely watching the current political situation in Bangladesh. New Delhi is exerting pressure on the Yunus regime to abandon what it perceives as anti-Indian stance. A section of the Indian media and the Modi government leave no issue to criticise the Yunus regime - whether it is the banning of Awami League, reported construction of an airbase with the Chinese assistance in north Bengal's city Lal Monirhat, Dhaka's growing rapport with Pakistan or the rise of Islamist forces in Bangladesh. Dhaka criticises New Delhi on why it has allowed Sheikh Hasina to launch hostile tirade against the Yunus regime and why despite official request it has not handed her over to Bangladesh. Bangladesh also accuses India of using the 'Hindu' minority card to blame the Yunus regime. Decades of deep-rooted influence of India's RAW in Bangladesh - permeating in academia, civil society, bureaucracy, judiciary and other segments of society - is making it difficult for the Yunus regime to take an independent position. Surrounded by three sides from India and economically dependent, Bangladesh is trying to get space by reaching out to China and other countries. In order to penalise Bangladesh over its refusal to follow a pro-India stance, Delhi has imposed trade restrictions so that Dhaka capitulates.

In order to deal with its growing predicament, the Yunus regime has announced general elections to be held in April 2026, but one is not sure to what extent Bangladesh will be able to ensure transparent elections within the next 10 months. The coming months will be decisive regarding the approach of the caretaker government and political parties to deal with coming elections.