Turmoil in Bangladesh

After its traumatic struggle to separate from the rest of Pakistan, Bangladesh aspired to become a secular and pluralistic democracy. However, despite its relatively impressive economic performance and human development achievements, this densely populated country has remained plagued by recurrent political violence.

After experiencing years of bitter rivalry between its two main political parties, the political future of this second largest Muslim country in South Asia has become increasingly uncertain. Bangladesh has certainly seen its share of turmoil over these past five decades. The Awami League had been in power for just a few years when a bloody coup led to the assassination of Sheikh Mujeeb-ur-Rehman, along with many of his family members, in 1975. This assassination set the stage for the Awami League's deep-seated rivalry with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), formed by Zia-ur-Rahman.

Zia-ur-Rahman was also assassinated in another coup in 1981, by Awami League sympathisers for his alleged role in Mujeeb's murder. The military then remained in charge of the country for almost nine years. From the early 1990s onwards, the BNP (led by Zia-ur-Rahman's widow Khalida Zia) and the Awami League (led by Sheikh Mujeeb-ur-Rahman's daughter Sheikh Hasina) began alternating in government, barring another two-year period of a military-backed emergency caretaker regime which suspended parliamentary elections in 2007.

Khaleda Zia was the PM twice from 1991 to 1996, and from 2001 to 2006. Sheikh Hasina first became the PM in 1996. She then returned as PM in 2008 and remained in power till her ouster in August 2024.

The Awami League managed to stay in power for multiple terms by creating a broad-based coalition which included Bangladeshi nationalists, moderate Islamists and secular supporters. But Sheikh Hasina soon began exhibiting authoritarian tendencies. Under her, there was increased repression of opponents, including not only BNP leaders and workers, but also Jamaat-i-Islami members for their alleged collaboration with Pakistan while East Pakistan was struggling for independence. Sheikh Hasina used the security apparatus, and even co-opted the judiciary, to punish her opponents. She is also accused of engaging in massive electoral rigging.

Soon after Sheikh Hasina's controversial electoral victory in 2024, students rose up to protest the government decision to institute job quotas devised to benefit its own stalwarts. Repressive tactics to disperse protesters caused around 1,500 deaths, which is when the Bangladeshi military decided to withdraw its support to the government, and Sheikh Hasina was compelled to resign and flee to India.

Widely welcomed was the appointment of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the head of a new caretaker government which has taken upon itself the herculean task of institutional reforms, deemed a precondition for enabling fresh and fair elections. However, this interim setup is struggling to maintain law and order, implement its reform agenda, and avert the politics of revenge.

Moreover, the caretaker government has yet to announce a firm date for elections, and its decision to ban the Awami League is raising doubts about its intention to hold 'inclusive' elections. Conversely, the Jamaat-e-Islami, banned in 2013 by Sheikh Hasina, is now free to engage in the political process again.

BNP took to the streets recently demanding that elections be held during the current year. Students who led the 2024 protests have also formed their own political party. Despite Yunus claiming that he will not run for office, there is growing tension between him and the army. There are increased fears of communal violence, and uncertainty surrounding what the Awami League will do to push back against being sidelined by the interim setup.

The present political situation in Bangladesh is thus quite fluid. Whether Bangladesh will be able to form a new government, which can overcome the current polarisation, and transcend the politics of vindictiveness which has plagued the country for much of its existence, remains to be seen.