Amid rivalry with India, it's time to focus on geo-economics

The recent conflict between Pakistan and India has drawn global attention. The rising tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, both furnished with cutting-edge conventional and non-conventional military competences, have elevated serious apprehensions, especially given their combined share of a substantial portion of the world's population — 20.8 per cent.

It is vital to highlight that such a war begins as a consequence of failure of diplomatic channels and multilateral efforts; erosion of meaningful negotiations; and inability of regional and international actors to mediate, combined with rising jingoism and hardened narratives.

Pakistan and India are both members of regional organisations such as SCO and SAARC, which were established to encourage discourse, economic cooperation and regional stability. Though, in spite of their shared platforms, bilateral tensions have often overshadowed the potential of these forums. Both the UN and the Commonwealth have largely been unsuccessful in their role as neutral mediators, as their efforts remained limited to encouraging dialogue without applying any real pressure on India, the aggressor, to engage in meaningful conflict resolution.

It is a fact that in high-stakes conflicts, the pure realist perspective often dominates where national interest, power and survival take preference over moral or ideological considerations. In such scenarios, the pursuit of state interests is not only expected but necessary.

However, in Pakistan's case, where we face a significantly larger and more powerful adversary, it becomes even more critical to complement hard power with smart diplomacy. Multilateralism, regional cooperation and international alliances must be leveraged to safeguard our national interest.

Pakistan responded to India's aggression after carefully assessing the reaction of the international community over the span of three days. It is crucial for Pakistan to convey to the world that it is not Ukraine or Palestine. No one, in their wildest imagination, can ever think of erasing Pakistan from the world map.

Interestingly, Pakistan chose to respond a day before Mother's Day, a reminder that we know how to protect our motherland. However, now is the time to initiate dialogue. It is time to give multilateralism and diplomacy a real chance. Now is the time to address the Indus Water Treaty.

For the first time, India has threatened to use water as a weapon, without fully realising that it is only a medium-upper riparian, while China is the true upper riparian, with the Brahmaputra originating from Tibet. China, as Pakistan's most trusted neighbour and brotherly country, should urge India to come to the negotiating table, discouraging any thoughts of using water as leverage or issuing threats related to water closure.

It is now time for Pakistan to focus on geo-economics, especially given our status as an agro-based country where the majority of our industries are heavily dependent on agricultural yields. The stability of our agricultural sector directly impacts economic growth, employment and food security. As global trade dynamics shift and inter-state relations evolve, it is crucial for Pakistan to adopt a geo-economic strategy that enhances our agricultural productivity, ensures water security and fosters economic cooperation.

Rice is one of the most water-intensive crops, particularly during the Kharif season (April to September). During FY24, Pakistan exported more than 6 million tons of different varieties of rice. If India were to reduce the flow of water from rivers like the Chenab or Jhelum, it could drastically affect Pakistan's rice production.

Cotton is another key crop grown in the Kharif season, and it has high water needs during its growth stages, particularly from June to September. According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, main commodities of exports during December 2024 were knitwear (Rs108,941 million), readymade garments (Rs99,330 million), bedwear (Rs71,252 million), cotton cloth (Rs41,388 million), cotton yarn (Rs17,456 million) and madeup articles (excluding towels and bedwear) (Rs16,404 million).

A reduction in water supply could hurt cotton production, potentially impacting Pakistan's textile industry, which is one of its largest economic sectors. Sugarcane is highly dependent on consistent irrigation, and it is grown in the Kharif season. The crop requires significant water during its long growth period, especially in areas like Sindh and Punjab.

A drop in water availability would affect sugarcane yields, leading to potential shortages of sugar and negatively impacting the sugar industry and related industries. Of the approximately 1.3 million tonnes of surplus sugar in the 2023-24 season, the government allowed 750,000 tonnes for export, while over 500,000 tonnes were carried forward into the 2024-25 season.

Therefore, it is evident that the first and foremost issue that needs to be addressed is the IWT. It is crucial that this matter be resolved once and for all, ensuring long-term stability and equitable water distribution between Pakistan and India. A permanent resolution of the water dispute would not only benefit both nations' agricultural sectors but also pave the way for better diplomatic relations and regional cooperation.

The IWT is a key factor in managing shared water resources, and resolving any issues related to it would have far-reaching benefits for both countries and the broader region.

It is time to initiate negotiations with India through international mediators and relevant global institutions. This is the moment to engage on equal footing, asserting our national interests with clarity and strength. It is a question of our people's survival, our economic stability and the preservation of our sovereignty.

Yet, we must also confront a deeper question: how long can we sustain repeated cycles of tension and conflict without investing in our own people? National security cannot be divorced from human development. Without prioritising education, healthcare, infrastructure and social cohesion, we risk weakening the very foundations of our state. Strategic strength is not only measured in weapons or alliances but in the well-being, productivity, and resilience of our population.