What's next for South Asia?

Thanks to President Donald Trump's intervention, a looming disaster for 1.7 billion people has been averted. Pakistan and India were moving fast on the escalation ladder; and on the night, I was awakened by an Indian attack on our twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad, it was clear that this may result in an actual full-scale war between two big countries.

After being hit in Rawalpindi, we knew that Pakistan now needs to and will retaliate, and after this, at least, I was thinking about how to survive a looming war, which could devastate both countries.

War is not child's play, but strangely, many TV anchors across the border were glamourising and asking for a war and full capitulation of Pakistan.

Unfortunately, reason was out, and the main objective was to get as much viewership as possible at the cost of truth. This also made decision-makers hostage to popular sentiments inflamed by TV channels. At that time of madness, President Trump announced a ceasefire between the two countries and actually saved the 1.7 billion population of the region from a major disaster.

While each country could boast about their military might and selective development and economic indicators, we still have a large number of poor people living in South Asia. Collectively the region has around 300 million people living below extreme poverty line ($2.15/day).

India alone has 140 million people living in the extreme poverty. Others are not far off, as according to the World Bank data, 40% Indians are living in poverty ($3.65/day). Pakistan and Bangladesh have pretty much the same numbers proportionate to its size. Does a region where hundreds of millions are living under poverty and extreme poverty need a war?

Health indicators are even worse. As public health professionals, we compare two countries with rates and not with absolute numbers. But if we are trying to give some sense for the tasks ahead to the decision-makers, we use absolute numbers. Where India has made many strides and its performance is better than Pakistan's, still 35% of its children under five are stunted, and 40% of Pakistan's. That results in a total of 50 million Indian kids and 10 million Pakistani kids.

Millions of our children are sleeping hungry and not fully developing physically and mentally. If you add the cohort effect, it will mean that hundreds of millions in both countries have deficient IQ and will never be able to fully contribute to national economies. Both countries are not only struggling with rampant infectious diseases but also facing major challenges of non-communicable diseases. According to one estimate, India's one billion population may be suffering from diabetes and similarly 70% of Pakistan's population too.

South Asian countries are neighbours, and they need to grow up and fight against poverty and disease instead of each other. India is trying to cut all communication and links with Pakistan (including banning Pakistani singers, film artists and TV channels) and revoking people exchange programmes, including cancelling visas for sick Pakistanis admitted to Indian hospitals, but all need to understand that we are linked with geography and historical relationships.

As an Infectious Disease epidemiologist, I know you can't stop a disease at your border so we need to share timely information about ongoing outbreaks as it will certainly cross borders without visa. Similarly, other sectors also need to cooperate with each other.

There could be grievances with each other but if we try to resolve it with war, nothing better will come out of it for any country. Don't allow some extremists to hijack peace and prosperity for close to two billion people. History is testament to it so let's start talking and we will find some solutions.