Assertive China ready to walk the talk?

By hosting a trilateral meeting with Pakistan and Afghanistan (May 20) and engaging bilaterally with their foreign ministers, an economically ascendant and politically assertive, self-confident China has made its statement, emphasising its growing influence in the region.

In his meeting with Afghanistan's acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Beijing (May 23) FM Wang Yi reiterated China's "respect for Afghanistan's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as the independent choices made by the Afghan people".

The interactions and the statement issued after their meeting carried six distinct but significant messages:

China will, as always, support the Afghan government in achieving long-term peace and stability at an early date. Since no country recognises the Taliban regime, the reference to "the Afghan government" underlined a marked departure from its stated policy thus far. It conveys the Chinese pragmatic approach to a party that literally controls entire Afghanistan. China was the first to send an ambassador to Kabul and accredit a Taliban ambassador in Beijing – defying the rest of the world which mostly looks up to Washington for taking such decisions.

Secondly, Beijing is willing to take on new challenges linked to the geopolitical competition. "China is ready to provide support and assistance for Afghanistan's reconstruction, development, and the improvement of people's livelihoods."

This appears to be the readiness to fill the financial/humanitarian assistance gap that President Trump caused by halting all the support to Afghanistan.

Until his re-entry into the White House, the US was contributing over half of the 160 million dollars that were flowing into Afghanistan through the UN agencies for critical humanitarian assistance.

Will Beijing step in to fill the gap in a bid to win over the Afghan regime that is struggling with finances and is also anxious to get recognition of five permanent members of the UN Security Council?

The third extremely important outcome that flowed from the trilateral meeting was China's expression of support for Pakistan and Afghanistan in "safeguarding their territorial integrity, sovereignty, and national dignity". The Chinese leadership had earlier issued this reassurance when Indo-Pak tensions were peaking earlier this month. This commitment now extends to Afghanistan as well – a calibrated approach to influence Kabul.

The fourth element that stands out is Beijing's desire to act as a bridge between Islamabad and Kabul. One of the seven outcomes FM Wang Yi mentioned was Pakistan's and Afghanistan's "clear willingness to elevate diplomatic relations and agree in principle to exchange ambassadors as soon as possible".

"China?welcomes?this," Yi said, "and?will?continue to provide?assistance for the?improvement of?Afghanistan-Pakistan relations" which as of now continue to reel from tensions primarily linked to TTP-induced terrorism and Kabul's apparent reluctance to go hard on "mujahid comrades".

Both countries currently conduct diplomacy through acting ambassadors in respective capitals. If both replace them with full time ambassadors before the 6th trilateral meeting in Kabul, that would count as an exclusively Chinese achievement.

This aspect also highlighted the fact that after months of conscious dithering vis a vis Islamabad for multiple reasons Beijing has now decided to reengage Pakistan on the political front and leverage it in its rivalry with the Indo-US alliance.

Fifth, extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan under the broader framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation, underscored yet another broader but important agreement. It can serve as a bait for the Afghan Taliban to recalibrate their undeclared policy on non-state actors (TTP, ETIM, IMU) which are reportedly sheltering in, and using Afghanistan for their subversive activities in target countries.

Lastly, the resolve against terrorism and external threats denotes another critical milestone – value addition to the counterterrorism framework.

The caveat "... to stay vigilant against external interference in the internal affairs of regional countries" underscored an indirect reference to externally-driven proxy terrorism.

China is clearly stepping up its engagement in the region to upend others – ready to deploy technology (as demonstrated during the recent Indo-Pak skirmish) and willingness to cough up financial resources (the promise to help Afghanistan's reconstruction and meet its humanitarian needs).

By the way, Chinese experts make no secret of the fact that "Pakistan remains the priority number one for China – regardless of who rules the country."

Their goal is to ensure Pakistan's survivability and territorial integrity in order to keep India bogged down and frustrate its ambition to become a regional hegemon. It has also tried hard to coerce or talk away most of its developing neighbours and wean them away from China.

This fits well into the America's China containment policy, whereby India acts as the counterweight to China and a guardian of the US interests in the region – deploying all possible means including support for proxy terror groups that remain an obvious source of concern for Pakistan and China.

But the larger picture points to a dichotomy as well. Pakistan's economic and financial survivability and solvency is tied to the West and its multilateral institutions (IMF and the US goodwill in that institution). China, on the other hand, stands out as both economic as well as defence lifeline. This makes it a tightrope walk for Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

Pakistan's long-term solvency lies in radical reform of the outdated governance model and not in reliance on external support which is more transactional and strategically less consequential.

Discussions with Chinese officials and academics lead you to one un-mistakeable conclusion. They all believe this is the China moment at a critical juncture of history and they are well-equipped to seize it too.