Economy posts surprise growth of 2.7%

The government on Tuesday claimed that the economy grew by 2.7% in the current fiscal year, driven by an unexpected 4.8% growth in the industrial sector — despite earlier concerns over contractionary policies and the high cost of doing business.

Throughout the year, the government had reported a decline in electricity generation. However, it now claims a 39.3% increase in gross value addition in the electricity sector.

Similarly, the construction sector, previously struggling due to high taxation and low demand, was reported to have grown by 6.6%.

On the other hand, major crops saw a drop in output: wheat production declined by 9%, rice by 1.4% and cotton by a significant 31%.

Despite the surprising growth claim, the 2.7% GDP increase is nearly equal to the population growth rate of 2.6%, suggesting that poverty and unemployment may have worsened. Moreover, the government missed even its modest growth target of 3.6%.

The 113th meeting of the National Accounts Committee approved the provisional GDP growth rate of 2.68% for fiscal year 2024-25, stated the Ministry of Planning after the meeting.

Planning Secretary Awais Manzur Sumra chaired the NAC meeting. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb would officially launch the economic growth figure on June 1.

The planning ministry further said that the NAC approved the provisional growth rates in agriculture, industry and services sector. It said that the agriculture sector grew marginally at 0.6%, but the industrial sector grew 4.8% and the services sector by 2.9%.

The 2.7% growth rate can only be attained, if Pakistan's economy grows at a pace of 5.3% in the April-June quarter of this fiscal year, said an official on the condition of anonymity. The economic growth in the third quarter was 2.4%.

The per capita income is now claimed to have increased to $1,824 and the size of the economy in dollar terms is $411 billion, said the Ministry of Planning. It said that on the basis of the latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY 2024-25, the overall size of the economy stands at Rs114.7 trillion or $410.96 billion as compared to $371.7 billion last year.

It underlined that the series of per capita income from 2016-17 onwards will be revised after the receipt of backward and forward projections of population from the sources on the basis of the 2023 Population Census.

Agriculture sector

The NAC approved that important crops have declined by 13.5% due to a decrease in the production of wheat from 31.8 million metric tons to 29 million tons. The claim of 29 million tons wheat production was far higher than the Ministry of Finance's own projections of around 26 million tons expected production this year.

The Planning Ministry said that the production of maize decreased by 15.4% to 8.24 million tons, rice output fell 1.4% to 9.7 million tons and sugarcane output decreased 4% to 84.24 million tons. The cotton crop sustained a major hit with a 31% dip in production. The cotton bales decreased from 10.22 million bales to 7.1 million bales.

But the Planning Ministry claimed that despite a 17% reduction in the production of grams, other crops have posted a provisional growth of 4.8% due to double-digit growth in the production of potato, onion, mango and sesame.

While cotton ginning & miscellaneous components have declined by 19%, livestock, forestry and fishing have posted provisional growth rates of 4.72%, 3.03% and 1.42%, it added.

Industrial growth

The Planning Ministry claimed that in this fiscal year, "industry has shown a growth of 4.77% provisionally". Despite an increase in the production of coal (2.84%), the mining & quarrying industry contracted by 3.4% because of a decrease in production of natural gas by 7.05%), crude oil output decreased by 14.7%.

The planning ministry said that large scale manufacturing also witnessed a negative growth of 1.53%, with mixed trend in the production of various groups.

"Electricity, gas and water supply industry has shown a positive growth of 28.9% primarily due to low base effect of FY 2023-24, i.e., -19.86% as well as increase in output of WAPDA & companies", claimed the Planning Ministry. Construction industry increased by 6.61% due to increase in construction-related expenditures by the private sector and general government, it added.

The growth in the construction sector is based on the claim that the government will spend Rs1.1 trillion on development in this fiscal year, which is untrue. Likewise, the electricity growth claim is based on the assumption that Rs1.2 trillion power subsidies will be utilized in this fiscal year.

Services Sector

The planning ministry said that the services sector has also shown a growth of 2.91% in 2024-25 with positive contributions from all the constituents. Wholesale and retail trade has witnessed a modest growth of 0.14% because of slower output growth in agriculture and manufacturing. Transport and storage industry has increased by 2.2% because of an increase in output of water, air and road transport, it added.

Information & Communication has grown by 6.5% due to increase in output of computer programming and consultancy activities 24%). Slower rate of inflation and low base effect has resulted into positive growth rates in Finance & Insurance and Public Administration and Social Security industries at 3.22% and 9.92% respectively, it added,

Further, both Education and Human health and Social Work industries have posted positive growth of 4.43% and 3.71% respectively, said the planning ministry.