India's strikes stem from fixation on vengeance

What began with an attack in Pahalgam — deep within the occupied territory of Kashmir — has since spiralled into a dangerous escalation between South Asia's two nuclear-armed neighbours, after India launched unprovoked strikes across several Pakistani cities. While New Delhi fixates on vengeance, analysts argue its actions stem less from strategic necessity than from reckless political theatre and a calculated deflection of blame.

None of this comes as a surprise to those who have watched the mercury steadily rise between New Delhi and Islamabad over the better part of eight decades. What many analysts find predictable is India's reflexive response to such incidents — an immediate and unwavering attribution of blame to Pakistan, typically without offering substantive evidence or considering alternative explanations.

Beneath the political posturing, however, the recent attack in Pahalgam reveals the same security and intelligence vulnerabilities seen in Pulwama six years ago. The assault did not take place in a remote or lawless area, but in a heavily militarised zone, firmly under Indian occupation and surrounded by surveillance. Media reports indicate that the assailants operated for an extended period, reportedly questioning victims before executing them. If these reports are accurate, the attackers displayed remarkable confidence, carrying out their actions without any fear of interruption.

,Wasting no time, the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party government ratcheted up its war rhetoric against Islamabad reviving the same incendiary calls for Pakistan's annihilation that followed the Pulwama attack — language critics argue serves more as political theatre than credible deterrence.

"India's approach toward Pakistan remains unchanged in both these incidents — the message is clear — Pakistan is always to blame," said Dr Claude Rakisits, a geo-strategic analyst based in Canberra.

He added, "The Indian government, both domestically and in its external messaging, portrays Pakistan as the epicentre of terrorism. To the international community — Americans, allies, the UN — they say — Pakistan is terror-central. They did it in 2019, now again in 2025."

Even in this latest attack, Rakisits noted, India has not provided any substantial evidence linking Pakistan to the incident. "But that didn't stop them from retaliating. The consistency lies in the fact that, domestically, India is quick to place the blame squarely on Pakistan," he explained.

Asked why India continues to blame Pakistan, Rakisits said: "The key motivation is to deflect attention from what's really happening in Kashmir. Take the first Balakot strike—what triggered that? The revocation of Article 370 in August 2019. Things were already deteriorating, but both then and now, the goal is to shift focus away from Kashmir."

Rakisits, who has proposed a UN-supervised Kashmir referendum—much to New Delhi's dismay further explained: "India's goal is to steer international attention away from Kashmir, where political prisoners are locked up without trial, where there's no free press. All this in the so-called world's largest democracy."

"And let's not forget the other objective: distracting the world from India's post-2019 policies in Kashmir settling non-Kashmiris there to dilute the region's demographics. That's all part of the same strategy," he cautioned.

Narrative control

Since the revocation of Article 370 — India's constitutional provision that once afforded occupied Kashmir a measure of autonomy — Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worked to project an image of order, development, and integration in the disputed Himalayan region. His government portrayed the move as a bold step towards bringing democracy and prosperity to the territory, which has long sought independence from India. Yet, as Dr Claude Rakisits observes, the promise was always thin: "Before repealing Article 370, Modi and his government laid the groundwork. They claimed it would bring democracy, development, and progress to Kashmir. But clearly, that hasn't happened. Few bought that narrative—inside India or abroad. The international community mostly doesn't care, sadly."

For years, that narrative has rested uneasily atop a region many human rights groups now describe as the world's largest open-air prison its streets surveilled, dissent stifled, and freedoms suspended. But the facade of normalcy shattered with last month's deadly assault in Pahalgam, a picturesque town in the occupied valley. It was the worst such attack in a quarter of a century, exposing not only a deep security lapse but also the brittle nature of India's claims of control.

"This latest attack proves things are not normal in Kashmir whatever 'normal' means there," Rakisits said. "For Modi, this is deeply humiliating. It exposes reality. That's why he was under pressure to respond—to cover up that humiliation."

Deliberate escalation

For decades, India and Pakistan have abided by an unspoken understanding: while skirmishes along the Line of Control were frequent and, to some extent, tolerated, the international border — particularly across Punjab and Sindh — remained a red line.

"By striking deep inside Punjab, India has crossed that threshold," said Rakisits, adding that Modi's wounded political pride left him with little room to manoeuvre.

"The April 22 attack was a humiliation — it shattered the illusion that Kashmir is 'normal.' He had to respond. And since he blames Pakistan for everything, targeting it made sense to him. But this move has seriously escalated tensions."

India's strikes in the early hours of 7 May killed 31 people across Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, including a three-year-old girl, and wounded 57 others. Since then, a flurry of reports from Pakistan suggests its forces have shot down 25 Indian drones breaching its airspace. What began with New Delhi's attack has now brought the region closer to the precipice of nuclear calamity.

Military humiliation

While New Delhi sought to cast its strikes on Pakistani soil as a show of strength following the attack in Pahalgam, the narrative began to fray as events unfolded. For hours, India remained silent on mounting reports from Islamabad that several Indian jets had been downed. Only later did it confirm the loss of two aircraft — though Pakistan claimed to have shot down five, a figure still being disputed by New Delhi. Defence analysts argue that, regardless of the precise number, the episode dealt a tactical blow to India, handing Islamabad a symbolic edge in the conflict's unfolding narrative.

"What happened is almost beyond belief," said Rakisits. "India is reported to have lost between three to five aircraft—possibly including Rafales, among the most advanced and costly fighter jets in its fleet. For the Indian Air Force, it's nothing short of a debacle. It feeds a growing perception of operational vulnerability, especially following the loss of a jet in 2019."

The expert on South Asian geopolitics noted that the implications extend far beyond the subcontinent. "This is exponentially more damaging for Prime Minister Modi. The Quad comprising the US, Japan, Australia, and India—may now be questioning India's reliability as a military counterweight to China. After such a performance against a significantly smaller adversary, those doubts aren't unfounded."

"India has acknowledged the loss of multiple jets – Pakistan, by contrast, claims to have sustained no losses. In terms of perception and messaging, that's a clear win for Islamabad," Rakisits said.

Retaliate vs restraint

From a broader perspective, Pakistan's latest display of airpower has given India a haunting sense of déjà vu—evoking the events of 2019, when Islamabad returned a captured Indian pilot after downing a jet, seizing the moral high ground. This time, too, India has suffered losses in the air — reportedly involving some of its most advanced aircraft — in a blow that analysts say cuts deeper than battlefield arithmetic. The headlines shifted within hours — from "India strikes Pakistan" to "Pakistan downs Indian jets" — a reversal that some experts believe has inflicted political damage on Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a delicate time.

According to Rakisits, Pakistan "now looks ahead in the game," with key international actors particularly the United States and China likely urging restraint. "If I were General Asim Munir, I'd stop now," he said. "Pakistan appears strong and measured. Pushing further risks losing that advantage and dragging the region into chaos." But should Islamabad choose to strike again, the consequences could be grave. "Modi would have no choice but to respond," Rakisits warned. "And that's when South Asia could find itself hurtling toward full-scale conflict."