Bharat's baneful bluster

For those not very well schooled in strategy, especially the nuclear strategy, Escalation Ladder (EL)' is the ratcheting up of hostilities through rhetoric and actions between two potential belligerents. Where each side, assuming the potential response of the other side, climbs up higher on the imaginary two-sided EL, by making the cost of potential aggression unbearable for the other side.

This phenomenon is at work in case of India and Pakistan, where India through a wide-ranging diplomatic maneuver externally, and the use of media  — all forms — internally and regionally, created a psychosis, a hype for a revenge war against Pakistan, for any assumed terrorist acts, without substantial evidence or evidence at all. It happened in 2019 after the Pulwama terrorist attacks and it happened now after the April 22 Pahalgam attack on tourists.

So, after almost a fortnight of saber rattling, Indian Air Force (IAF) using around 80 aircraft struck around nine targets in six cities, 'presumably' using the BVR (beyond visual range) munitions without crossing the LoC in AJK, and international border in Punjab, closer to Lahore, Sialkot and Bahawalnagar in 'Operation Sindoor'.

The targets selected included religious schools ostensibly run by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the mother organisation behind 'The Resistance Group (TRF)', the obscure militant group that took responsibility for the Pahalgam carnage. A total of 26 Pakistani civilians were killed. PAF responded with grit and resolve targeting Indian Army positions and downed almost five IAF planes including state-of-the-art Rafael jets.

Indian Foreign Secretary along with ranking military officials briefed the media, after the nighttime strikes on 7th April. Pakistan's National Security Committee took stock of the situation and vowed to go beyond the cited 'defensive' action.

As run-up to the strikes authenticates, New Delhi's hasty linkage of Pahalgam with LeT/Pakistan was — analysts believe — a ruse to hold the bilateral Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 in abeyance. After this unlawful unilateral action in violation of the Treaty and international law as upper riparian, India is now emptying its water reservoirs to fill them again at a time when lower riparian Pakistan needs water for crop irrigation and electricity generation in the coming summer months. Jingoism under RSS-Modi-Amit Shah trio peaked and everyone was baying for Pakistani blood to 'teach Pakistan a lesson'. Thus, India climbed too quickly and too higher on the EL.

Climbing down from EL without military showdown, hence, was embarrassing for PM Modi who publicly spoke of revenge. Military action also helps him in garnering more political capital like in 2019 by winning elections; it also enhances his devta-like stature among Hindutva devotees; and it appeases the Indian military establishment who think (incorrectly) that there is space for a conventional war with Pakistan under the nuclear overhang.

Additionally, a cross-border retaliation for a terrorist act whose linkages are doubtful and deemed home-grown is disproportionate. By targeting seminaries, India aimed at inducing response dilemma on Pakistan, expecting dithering, forgetting Pakistan's Operation 'Swift Retort' in 2019. After Pakistan's expected tit-for-tat response in the offing, if India resorts to further airstrikes and/or ground incursions, these would be escalatory leading into a baneful cycle.

India's retaliatory rush seems over, as confirmed from the fact that PM Modi authorised the Indian Military for tactical and operational responses only, without resorting to any wider geo-strategic conflagration. Moreover, for wider ground war, Indian assembly of forces along its western borders takes considerable time, and even then, it has no overwhelmingly decisive superiority against Pakistan. Compulsion to keep larger forces along Indo-Bangladesh and Sino-India border curtails Indian numbers against Pakistan.

The international environment is also not in favour of continued military showdown, as statements and behind-the-scenes interlocution of international community including Russia, EU, the UK, the US, the UAE, OIC and the UN substantiates. China's resolute support to Pakistan also puts brakes on India's further escalation.

Internally, the chasm between the Indian political class and its Armed Forces is acute and detailed. The recent embarrassing detention of the GOC-in-Charge of the Northern Command (where Pahalgam happened), Lt Gen MV Suchindra Kumar; the firing of the Sectoral Air Chief; and the unceremonious posting out of Gen DS Rana, heading the Defence Intelligence Agency are cases in point. Senior commanders are 'reportedly' advised not to employ Sikh soldiers on sensitive duties for their pro-Khalistan leanings.

The Indian military is heterogeneous in nature, unlike the more cohesive Pakistani military, which is battle-hardened, better trained, resolutely led and higher on the comparison matrix of 'intangibles' like the will-to-fight, justness of cause, love for martyrdom, etc…considered decisive force multipliers in war. There are recurring political coups in the Indian Armed Forces with senior officers seeking judicial intervention on trivial matters like a change in date of birth, extension in service, etc.

There are repeated intelligence assessments about acute anti-India sentiment among common Kashmiris, eroding the military environment in the likely theatre of war. Modi's racist policies have antagonised and alienated larger segments of Indian minorities Muslims, Christian and Dalits alike. And there are raging insurgencies within the Indian Union. And a hegemonic New Delhi is not on good terms with any neighbour.

In geostrategy, the environment leads to threat; threat leads towards response; and response is based upon 'developmental strategy' in the short, medium to long-term. Pakistani military planners are ever alive to the Indo-Pak environment, the emanating threat and preparedness for it through a constant process, that is deliberate, methodical, ongoing and intense. Therefore, given the lukewarm international response to India's Exterior/Diplomatic Manoeuvre against Pakistan and her much curtailed Interior Maneuver for cited reasons, large-scale hostilities against Pakistan are not envisaged and risky despite Pakistan's expected response, which would match ground realities.

India has tried to set a new normal by automatically blaming Pakistan for any terrorist acts on its soil and by resorting to bombing Pakistan proper. It seems more emboldened this time, as it struck the LeT centre near Muridke, Lahore. An overconfident India emulates Israel and other powers and needs to be checked.

Pakistan's response needs to be quick, decisive and 'measuredly' painful. And Islamabad must declare its nuclear policy now!