Who will win the war?

"Older men declare war, but it's the youth that must fight and die." This bloodstained reminder by Herbert Hoover, the 31st American President, fell on deaf ears as the US continued to engage in wars throughout the remainder of the last century. Gen William Westmoreland, who led the US troops in Vietnam War, conceded, as an apologetic afterthought, that the military don't start war, politicians do.

Ever since the Pahalgam tragedy, politicians and the media at large on both sides of the Indo-Pak border are playing ping-pong of scathing rebukes and damning indictments with no convincing or irrefutable evidence to substantiate their allegations. People in the two countries are being brainwashed into believing one-sided narratives while demonising the other side.

We are transported into a magical land of half-truths. We seem to have capitulated to these half-truths and cover-ups because the entire truth is often too ugly. To add insult to injury, any attempt at reconciliation or a hand shake between the two neighbours is met with a slap on the wrist.

Pakistan, turning a blind eye to its history of political miscalculations and mismanagement, lambasts India (and perhaps rightly so) for their involvement in a separatist insurgency in Balochistan. India, on the other hand, denying any role in supporting the insurgency in Balochistan, accuses Pakistan of financing and supporting terrorist networks operating in Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan slams Prime Minister Modi's BJP for promoting Hindutva ideology creating sectarian fissures in a country that once was lauded for being a multicultural pluralistic, inclusive and secular society. We can and should criticise Modi's Hindutva ideology, but it's the pot calling the kettle black since we too in Pakistan have a dismal record of protecting the rights of minorities.

Politicians and the media can also add fuel to fire. Before the world could mourn for the victims of the Pahalgam tragedy, India took no time to blame Pakistan for the terrorist attack. Pakistan retaliated by calling the terrorist attack a false-flag operation. People on both sides displayed conformation bias implying that they agreed with that information and that information alone that confirmed their existing beliefs and values.

At moments like these, when two nations butt heads like rams to establish dominance, we often abandon rational thinking and find solace and refuge in emotions. Rage and revenge replace self-reflection and foresight. Our echo chambers, deceptively reassuring, give us a sense of moral righteousness and a feeling of superiority. Whether Indian or Pakistani, our bigotry blinds us. We look down upon our neighbors across the border. We become each other's perpetual enemies.

Like India, Pakistan has its own recorded (and some unrecorded) history of adventures and misadventures. How can we forget Operation Gibraltar (1965) that failed to incite an insurgency by Kashmiri Muslims in J&K? How can we forget Operation Searchlight (1971) aimed to curb Bengali opposition and take control of all major cities in then-East Pakistan? How can we forget Operation Cyclone (1979) when the US (and others) armed and financed the Afghan Mujahideen through Pakistan? By becoming a US proxy, Pakistan became a breeding ground for heroin trade, AK-47s, religious extremism and militant outfits.

Today, a war between India and Pakistan looms ahead. But this time around, the ball is in Modi's court. The stakes are much higher since Pakistan has already alluded to the use of tactical nukes if pushed into a corner. "A hundred million people could die immediately if the two countries engaged in a nuclear war and even more could die from starvation if the conflict could trigger a nuclear winter," reports Newsweek citing a 2019 study co-authored by Rutgers University. So, who will win the war? It's a no-brainer.

The winner in any war is always the same — the defence industry that profits from the sale of weapons, munitions, drones, missiles, fighter jets, aircraft carriers and surveillance systems.