Will PPP burn the bridge with PML-N over canal dispute?

Ever since the controversy over constructing six canals on the Indus River erupted, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)'s key ally, the Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP), has drawn a clear line in the sand: shelve the project, or risk the collapse of the federal government.

As political tensions rise between the two major parliamentary forces, where the PPPP helped PML-N cobble together a government at the Centre, the pressing question remains: is the PPP's threat mere political posturing, or is it truly prepared to pull the plug?

Experts, for now, remain divided

With the PPPP and PML-N locking horns over water rights, analysts argue that the survival of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's administration now hinges on backchannel negotiations – initiated on April 20 — and the influence of powerful, behind-the-scenes stakeholders.

The PPP has voiced strong reservations about the canal project, which aims to meet the irrigation needs of the Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI) in the Cholistan desert. These concerns have persisted since Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen Asim Munir inaugurated the project on February 15.

Since the coalition's formation, both parties have frequently engaged in what many describe as "fixed fights", political theatrics intended more for public optics than actual outcomes.

However, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari's latest ultimatum in Hyderabad marked a notable departure from the script. He explicitly called on the government to halt the project or risk losing PPP support – an explicit threat that could bring the already fragile federal setup to its knees.

The warning worked as PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif and PM Shehbaz swiftly instructed party functionaries to initiate dialogue before the situation spun out of control. Talks were formally opened.

The first meeting between both sides remains pending.

Experts, however, see the PPP's defiance as more about self-preservation than coalition dynamics. With its national footprint drastically reduced, Sindh remains the party's final bastion, a redoubt it cannot afford to lose.

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), and Raza Ahmad Rumi, a policy analyst and journalist, both believe that betrayal on water rights could cripple PPP in its heartland and that they can't afford.

Mehboob noted that a party which once ruled the federation and all four provinces now finds itself cornered in Sindh. The province is the party's power base, and any threat to it is a red line for PPP, he noted.

He noted that PPP may or may not have initially signalled its acceptance of the Cholistan canals project.

However, the tide has since turned. The emergence of a fervent anti-canals movement in Sindh has tied the party's hands, making it difficult for it to provide a window of opportunity to its opponents in Sindh to capture its last base.

"PPP will go to any extent to convince PMLN and the establishment to do away with or at least defer the canals project," Mehboob said, adding "but if it can't succeed, it may have to dissociate from the support to the federal government".

Rumi seconded Mehboob to the extent that the party initially green-lighted the project, noting that while it initially gave the green light to the canals project, a U-turn was inevitable once it snowballed into a matter of Sindhi national identity.

The party backtracked on its initial position and joined the bandwagon of public activism on the issue.

That said, Rumi added a caveat: despite the noise, it's unlikely PPP would actually quit the coalition in Islamabad, given its current comfort level in terms of power-sharing with both the establishment and PML-N.

The PPP certainly holds the key to toppling this government, he said, pointing out that the government needs its key ally's votes to survive. "But it should be emphasised that the federal coalition was put together by the establishment".

"And any change would be directed by them," the analyst stressed.