Rice exports surge 21.78% despite India's return
Despite global market turbulence and intense competition, Pakistan's rice sector has emerged as an unlikely success story, defying predictions of a downturn after India lifted its rice export ban in September 2024.
Rice exporters and commodities analysts said the rice sector has turned potential disaster into opportunity. By prioritising quality and innovation over short-term price battles, it has carved out a sustainable niche in the global market. They now hope that by the end of FY2024-25, annual exports will surpass the previous year's figure of 773,000 tonnes. Commodities expert Hamid Malik, a leading analyst of agricultural trade, credits Pakistan's resilient exporters and strategic quality-focused approach for the sector's remarkable growth, which saw exports surge by 21.78% in the first nine months (July 2024-March 2025) of FY25.
Speaking to The Express Tribune, Malik said, "This is not just a win for exporters, it's a blueprint for how developing economies can leverage their strengths amid volatility." Global rice markets were thrown into uncertainty in mid-2023 when India, the world's largest rice exporter, banned non-basmati rice exports to stabilise domestic prices. This created a supply gap, pushing international prices to historic highs of over $600 per tonne for non-basmati and $1,200 for basmati. Pakistan quickly stepped in, filling the void and boosting its exports. However, the sector faced a looming threat, as analysts expected India to lift its ban once domestic production stabilised after a strong monsoon.
Those fears materialised in September 2024 when India not only resumed exports but scrapped its Minimum Export Price (MEP) ceiling, allowing traders to sell at any price. "Many predicted Pakistan's rice exports would collapse overnight," said Malik. "Indian media even suggested Pakistan's trade would grind to a standstill, but the reality has been strikingly different."
Rather than engaging in a price war with India, Pakistani exporters doubled down on quality, particularly for basmati rice, and this pivot paid off. As of March 2025, Pakistan holds 67% of the basmati brown rice market in the EU and UK — regions known for strict quality standards — compared to India's 33%, despite Pakistani rice selling at a $100-plus per tonne premium. "Consumers in premium markets are willing to pay more for consistency and superior aroma. Pakistan's focus on meeting these demands has built trust," Malik said.
Non-basmati exports, on the other hand, faced tougher challenges. Domestic production shortages limited supply, and lowering prices risked hurting farmers' incomes. Yet Pakistan still managed to ship 663,000 tonnes between July 2024 and March 2025, up 118,577 tonnes year-on-year. Malik attributes this to efficient supply chain management and exporters' agility in targeting niche markets.
Another factor tilting the scales in Pakistan's favour is currency performance. While the Indian rupee depreciated by 3% during the season, Pakistan's relative currency stability allowed its exporters to avoid drastic price cuts.
In markets like the UAE and Iran, Pakistani basmati now commands a premium of $130-$210 per tonne over competitors. Even in price-sensitive regions, buyers are increasingly opting for Pakistani rice. "It's not just about cost anymore. Global consumers associate Pakistani rice with reliability, which translates to long-term partnerships," said Malik. With three months remaining in the fiscal year, Pakistan is on track to surpass last year's basmati export record. "The sector has shown it can adapt. If Pakistan continues investing in quality upgrades and farmer support, it could permanently shift its role from a fill-in supplier to a market leader," said Arif Ali, a rice exporter.
He also emphasised the need for government action to sustain growth. "Subsidies for sustainable farming practices and R&D in high-yield seeds will be critical. The world is watching. This is Pakistan's chance to solidify its position," Ali added. Importers in Europe have taken notice. "Many rice importers switched to Pakistani basmati last year, and the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive," said UAE- and EU-based rice exporter Ali Rehman. But risks remain. India's vast production capacity means it could flood the market if prices drop. Additionally, climate change poses a long-term threat to Pakistan's rice yields. "One bad monsoon or a surge in global stockpiles could disrupt the balance. Diversifying markets and improving climate resilience are non-negotiable," Malik added.