Trouble brewing on borders

March 20 marked two significant developments: Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to reopen the Torkham border partially; and an unusual but eventful meeting in Kabul led to the release of American hostage George Glenzman, facilitated by the Qatari government. Both events should raise concerns for Pakistan.

The border issue: a recurring challenge

The reopening of the Torkham border brought relief to traders, farmers, officials and daily wage workers on both sides, nearly four weeks after an exchange of fire forced its closure. The reopening followed multiple jirgas involving tribal elders, religious scholars and traders from both countries. Cargo vehicles once again began flowing through the corridor in both directions.

The latest stand-off was triggered by Pakistani objections to the construction and renovation of a border checkpost on the Afghan side, leading to the border's closure on February 21. In response, Afghan border officials accused Pakistan of installing a new signboard near the crossing without prior consultation, unilaterally altering the border's structure.

Khan Jan Alokozay, Co-chairman of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chambers of Commerce and Industries (PAJCCI), lamented how political tensions consistently disrupt cross-border trade.

"We kept urging both sides to resolve their disputes through dialogue instead of punishing tens of thousands of people and crippling trade," he told me at his Kabul office.

Alokozay highlighted the economic fallout: nearly 100 trucks carrying beans, lentils and cotton from Central Asia to Pakistan were stranded on the Afghan side, while 250 coal-laden trucks destined for Pakistan remained stuck for 26 days. On average, 800 trucks cross the border daily, supporting countless livelihoods and markets.

Despite repeated efforts by PAJCCI to insulate trade and economic activity from political acrimony, occasional border closures persist. Such episodes could be avoided if both sides adhered to prior consultations through the Joint Coordination Committee (JCC), established years ago for this purpose.

The release of George Glenzman: a diplomatic move

The release of American prisoner George Glenzman, a Delta Air Lines mechanic, after two years of detention followed a surprise meeting in Kabul between Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Adam Boehler, the US diplomat for hostage negotiations. Former US special representative for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, also accompanied Boehler.

Glenzman's release follows that of two other Americans, Ryan Corbett and William, earlier this year, in a deal struck during the final days of the Biden administration in exchange for a Taliban member held in US custody.

An official statement described the Muttaqi-Boehler meeting as a "significant step in rebuilding diplomatic engagement." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised Qatar for its "instrumental" role in securing Glenzman's freedom.

Implications for Pakistan

The situation does not bode well for Pakistan on multiple fronts.

1. Economic fallout from border closures

Repeated border closures and illogical restrictions on Afghan transit trade have diverted an estimated $2 billion in trade to Iran's Bandar Abbas and Chabahar ports. Afghan importers, who are inherently risk-averse, seek ease and certainty in doing business. However, Pakistan's management of transit trade has been neither easy nor risk-free.

While Pakistan remains the preferred route for Afghan importers due to cost and time efficiency, the lack of a long-term, transparent and logical policy framework has led to bureaucratic harassment and extraction at Karachi and Qasim ports. This has resulted in diminishing returns and growing resentment in Afghanistan.

2. Qatar's growing role in Afghanistan

The release of Glenzman has once again positioned Qatar at the centre of Afghan-related issues, underscoring its growing influence in the region.

3. The return of Zalmay Khalilzad

The presence of Zalmay Khalilzad, alongside Adam Boehler, in Kabul should raise alarms in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Khalilzad has been vocal in his criticism of Pakistan's current political system and has repeatedly called for the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. He has even warned of a potential meltdown if the government fails to reach a deal with the PTI.

4. A two-front security challenge

Pakistan faces a literal two-front war situation. On its western front, terrorist groups like TTP and BLA-BLF continue to launch vicious attacks across Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. On the eastern front, the drumbeat of insecurity and terrorist violence persists, stoking international fears and projecting Pakistan as a haven for non-state actors.

This raises a critical question: are elements within the Islamic Emirate, perhaps unconsciously, facilitating India's proxy war against Pakistan by refusing to act against the TTP and its affiliates? The allure of the Chabahar port, managed by an Indian company, is too great for many Afghans to resist, providing India with an opportunity to regain lost ground in Afghanistan.

5. Economic and diplomatic isolation

Empty coffers are more of a liability than a geopolitical advantage. While Pakistan's strategic location has historically attracted expediency-driven favours - evident during the two Afghan wars — it offers little lasting benefit if the country remains internally unstable and insecure. Economic relevance and political-diplomatic isolation loom large as most nations focus inward on addressing their own challenges.

The dual developments of the Torkham border reopening and Glenzman's release highlight the complex dynamics at play in the region. For Pakistan, the recurring border tensions, growing security challenges and diplomatic shifts underscore the urgent need for a coherent, long-term strategy to stabilise its economy, secure its borders and rebuild its international standing. Without such measures, the country risks further isolation and instability in an increasingly volatile region.