Trade war to sap growth in Canada, Mexico, US

President Donald Trump's tariff hikes will drag down growth in Canada, Mexico and the United States while driving up inflation, the OECD forecast on Monday, cutting its global economic outlook and warning that a broader trade war would sap growth further.

In the case of a generalised trade shock, not only will US households pay a high direct price, but the likely economic slowdown will cost the United States more than the extra income the tariffs are supposed to generate, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimated in its interim outlook.

Global growth is on course to slow slightly from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, the Paris-based policy forum said, cutting its projections from 3.3% for both this year and next in its previous economic outlook, issued in December.

But the global picture masked divergences among major economies with resilience in some big emerging markets like China helping to make up for a marked slowdown in North America.

The proliferation of tariff hikes would weigh on global business investment and boost inflation, leaving central banks little choice but to keep interest rates higher for longer than previously expected, the OECD said.

The organisation updated its forecasts assuming tariffs between the United States and its neighbours are raised an extra 25 percentage points on almost all goods imports from April. As a result, US economic growth was seen slowing this year to 2.2% before losing more steam next year to only 1.6%, the OECD said, cutting its forecasts from 2.4% and 2.1% previously.

But the Mexican economy would be hit hardest by the tariff hikes, contracting 1.3% this year and a further 0.6% next year instead of growing 1.2% and 1.6% as previously expected.

Canada's growth rate would slow to 0.7% this year and next, well below the 2% previously forecast for both years.

Stronger government support for Chinese growth would help offset the impact of higher tariffs in the world's second-biggest economy, the OECD said.