Dollar mauled as trade war escalates
The dollar hit three-month lows on Wednesday as the US' trade war with its partners escalated, while a major overhaul to German government borrowing triggered the biggest sell-off in the country's debt since the late 1990s.
In addition to the cocktail of tariffs and a seismic shift in German fiscal policy, investors also scrutinised the start of China's annual sessions of its parliament, the National People's Congress, at which Beijing retained a goal of roughly 5% economic growth for 2025.
The euro hit its highest in four months, while European stocks surged. The biggest casualties were longer-dated German government bonds, caught up in their worst one-day selloff in more than 25 years as yields ripped higher.
Overnight, German political parties agreed to a 500 billion-euro ($534.75 billion) infrastructure fund and, crucially, an overhaul in borrowing limits that economists billed as "a really big bazooka".
German 30-year yields – the rate the government pays to borrow over the very long term – rose by almost a quarter of a percentage point in early trading, on track for their largest rise since October 1998.
The 30-year bond yield was last up 20 basis points at 3.03%.
"It's a recognition that something has changed. Germany is the benchmark against which all these other markets are measured. And so, this big transition in German fiscal policy is significant," Dario Perkins, MD, global macro at TS Lombard, said.
Trade war incoming
US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China went into effect on Tuesday, when President Donald Trump also delivered his State of the Union address, in which he touted his successes since taking office six weeks ago.
Canada and China retaliated immediately, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum vowed to respond likewise, without giving details. "Fears about weaker US and global economic activity are manifesting in the markets, with cyclicals driving the sell-off," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com.
In China, the offshore yuan was a touch weaker at 7.2629, having staged its biggest one-day rally the previous session since Trump's inauguration as investors ditched the dollar.
Overnight, the US S&P 500 slid 1.2%, but futures rose 0.7% on Wednesday.
The US dollar index tumbled 0.5% to 105.03, bringing its losses over the last three days to 2.3%, the most in this timeframe since late 2022.
In the ascendant was the euro, which rose 0.6% to $1.0693, the most since mid-November.
Oil fell for a third day on Wednesday, under pressure from concern over energy demand as tit-for-tat tariffs ramp up and from OPEC+ plans to raise output in April.
Brent futures fell 1.3% to $70.09 a barrel, having hit $69.75 the previous day, the lowest since September.