The war in Ukraine – soldiers and kings

It was sad to see President Zelensky getting the unfortunate drubbing from President Trump during a recent meeting. Trump had repeatedly called him a dictator in the past, outright rejected Ukraine's NATO membership and reminded Mr Zelensky to be 'grateful' for what Washington had done for Kyiv. President Zelensky's agitational posturing was making no effect on 'the leader of the free world'.

A lot has changed on the global chessboard recently. This piece intends mapping out some key development vis-à-vis Kyiv war with Moscow and the broader Trans-Pacific alliance. But first, some hard facts about the realpolitik.

With the interconnectedness of the world, the concepts of total independence and 'sovereignty' have undergone profound changes. No nation in today's Global Order is absolutely free to do anything it wants, as there are agile political, financial, intellectual and public infrastructures that inhibit a 'free ride', a 'free for all ride' and 'a ride free from all encumbrances' especially during crises. This is particularly true for the ranking powers, the Global South and other developing and underdeveloped nations. Great Powers like China and some of the P-5 members have relatively greater room for maneuver.

The only 'hegemon', the US, generally gets its way unless the compulsions of domestic politics cast a restraining influence. That is why domestic opinion within the US, demonstrated sometimes through opinion polls, is critical to any Presidency. The war in Ukraine was propped up by the Global elite with the US deep state in cahoots for valid geostrategic reasoning, but it was never popular with the American public, and when Trump campaigned on the promise of ending this wasteful expense of the US taxpayers' money, the outcome was a writing on the wall. And wall-chalking is not visible to some leaders, who harbour other interests.

In my Op-ed titled 'Russian Strategy and the Ukraine Crisis' in this space on 3 February 2022, I had – after analysing Moscow's geo-strategic compulsions – predicted, "Therefore, if the past is any guide, Mr Putin will walk away laughing this time around too." And when the shooting started on 24 February 2022, I went blunt and a step further, when my Op-ed on 7 April 2022 titled 'Why Russia would Never Let go of Ukraine' ominously reminded the Ukrainian hawks led by Mr Zelensky, then riding the global wave of sympathy under strong manipulation by the West Plus, that "realistically if unfortunately, Mr Zelensky, the Jewish President of Ukraine needs to read the situation correctly, to save his nation from unnecessary destruction, rather than regurgitating his pro-Western, anti-Russia defiance. America with 'no' appetite for another foreign war, has a history of abandonment." Ukraine is no Israel. And Europe is not the Middle East. So much for the subtle background.

After the angry exchange in the White House on Friday, 28 February, President Trump not only cancelled the planned news conference with Zelensky, but his administration also suspended all US military aid to Kyiv. This decision, though dubbed 'temporary' by some US officials, blocks billions in crucial shipments, deliveries of ammunition, vehicles and other equipment, etc that also includes shipments agreed during Biden presidency. During the Friday meeting Donald Trump accused Volodymyr Zelensky of "gambling with" a third world war, tersely asking him to come back "when he is ready for peace".

America's critical assistance to Ukraine remains at $175 billion since the Russian invasion; and in December, just before leaving office, Joe Biden announced another $5.9 billion in security and budgetary assistance. In a devilish way, killing of soldiers on either side was keeping Ukraine on life support. Hence the tough and terse rebuke by the Trump Administration, fully backed by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Ukrainian side is dubbing the whole saga as asking them to capitulate before the Russian 'aggression'.

Trump's past and present Administrations have traditionally scoffed at the bloated US spending in NATO and have repeatedly ticked Europe to carry its burden. The European Union, having enjoyed the almost free ride under the US defence umbrella, and their own diminishing defence spending consequently since World War-II, is now scrambling to allocate 'all possible' defence allocations by its 27 member states. For NATO, it made geostrategic sense to put a buffer between the Russian polar bear and Europe, even if it entailed using Ukraine and Poland as proxies. And that strategic notion is perhaps the foundational glue to the EU's moralistic stand against Russian onslaught.

By September 2022, Russia's Ministry of Defence claimed killing over 61,207 Ukrainian soldiers with 49,368 wounded. By mid-December 2024, Russia updated its claim to almost one million Ukrainian killed and wounded. US intelligence documents cited 110,000 Russian casualties by 28 February 2023. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed over 20,000 troops dead by May 25, 2023, and claimed Russian military had lost 120,000 soldiers by late June 2023. He accused Russian Ministry of Defence of downplaying Russian losses.

This is besides the other horrible consequences of this war like the equipment losses, the lost trade and agriculture, the forced migrations, the lost opportunities, the destroyed towns and cities, the socio-psychological traumas, the recurring costs of warfighting, the subsequent reconstruction, etc. And after all this, the war is at best stalemated to the advantage of Russia that is gradually chipping at the Ukrainian territory, forcing a manpower-starved Ukrainian military increasingly on the defensive.

From a purely military standpoint, irrespective of the merits of the situation, Ukraine does not have the wherewithal to restore its pre-2014 borders and win, despite its Kursk incursion in Russia proper during August 2024. It also cannot fight this war with the US and European support as its demography simply does not permit. And foreign legionnaires do not like getting killed in protracted wars with dubious outcomes.

So, perhaps for a change, Zelensky's Ukraine needs to listen to President Trump who wants, as it seems, to end the games played on the European chessboard between kings and soldiers! Thankfully the Ukrainian king has fewer options.