Low wheat crop

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The anticipated shortfall in wheat output is raising significant concern about grain imports putting additional stress on the country's foreign exchange reserves.

The finance ministry recently estimated that annual output would fall by about 11%, or 3.5 million tons, largely due to unfavourably dry weather predicted in the coming months. While a decline was always likely, given that experts had ranked last year's crop as a bumper crop, the decline is still notable because it could have been offset if the government had been quick on its feet and set wheat prices and procurement targets in advance to encourage farmers.

Instead, because of the lax approach of the federal and provincial governments, we can expect at least a billion dollars of precious forex to be dedicated to imports. And while some members of the ruling parties have pointed to the IMF's push for deregulation of commodity prices, the government unilaterally decided to forgo control prices a year before the IMF's deadline.

The government's continuing unwillingness and inability to stabilise commodity prices keeps taking an unnecessary toll, not only on the food industry, but on everyday citizens who must budget for wild fluctuations in the prices of staple goods. While inflation has decreased dramatically in recent months, the carnage of the last few years has left millions of Pakistanis in precarious situations, and they deserve any opportunity possible to plan ahead.

It is also worth noting that food insecurity is widely cited as one of the stressful factors that eats away at people's mental health around the world. Meanwhile, the ubiquity of wheat in our food ecosystem means that a significant price increase for wheat products due to expensive imports could have a knock-on effect on other commodities.

And although there is no shortcut to increasing wheat supplies or stablising prices, the government still needs to be proactive by finding ways to work within the IMF framework to ensure farmers are fairly compensated and market prices are consistently affordable.