Japan's birthrate hits record low in 2024 as population continues to shrink

Japan’s birthrate has fallen to a new record low, marking a ninth consecutive year of decline, according to official figures released on Thursday by the health ministry.

In 2024, the number of babies born in the country dropped to just 720,988, a 5% decrease from the previous year. This is the lowest figure since records began in 1899, further underscoring Japan’s ongoing demographic crisis.

At the same time, the number of deaths in Japan reached a new high of 1.62 million in 2024, meaning more than two people died for every new baby born. This widening gap between births and deaths signals a rapidly shrinking population, which is raising serious concerns about the country’s future economic and social stability.

Japan’s ageing population has become an existential challenge, with fewer workers supporting an ever-growing elderly population. The country has been grappling with a declining workforce since 1995, and projections suggest that by 2040, Japan will face a labour shortfall of 11 million workers. As fewer young people enter the workforce, the strain on social security systems continues to grow.

In response to these challenges, Japan’s government has allocated ¥37.7 trillion (approximately $253 billion) for social security in the upcoming fiscal year, a nearly 20% rise in just a decade. However, with fewer people contributing to the pension system, the financial pressure is mounting. The number of pension recipients has increased by 40% in the last 20 years, while the number of contributors has decreased by 3 million.

Despite various government initiatives to boost the birthrate, such as the ¥3.6 trillion childcare policy package introduced by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the results have been disappointing. The policy includes financial support for expectant parents and improved working conditions for childcare workers, but births in 2024 were still far below the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research’s projections of 779,000.

One of the more unconventional measures has been the launch of a state-run dating app by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, designed to encourage marriage. This initiative has attracted international attention, including a tweet from billionaire Elon Musk, who expressed his approval of Japan’s approach.

The app aims to address issues such as work-life balance, childcare, and housing assistance, but experts question whether digital matchmaking can reverse a broader cultural shift towards singlehood.

Japan is not alone in facing a demographic crisis. South Korea’s fertility rate remains one of the world’s lowest, while France and China have also seen sharp declines in birthrates in recent years. However, Japan’s situation is particularly dire, with the country’s fertility rate dropping to just 1.20 in 2023, and Tokyo’s rate dipping below one.

A dwindling population means a growing economic burden on younger generations, with fewer workers to contribute to the tax base and rising pressure on businesses. As social security costs balloon, Japan’s economic outlook appears increasingly uncertain.

Experts warn that without significant changes, Japan’s demographic decline may be irreversible. Professor Hiroshi Yoshida from Tohoku University has created a symbolic "clock" to highlight the country’s demographic collapse, estimating that the population will fall to just one child per family by 2720. While the clock is more of a conceptual tool, it illustrates the severity of the crisis.

Marriage remains a key factor in Japan’s low birthrate. Traditionally, childbirth in Japan is closely linked to marriage, but fewer people are getting married. In 2023, the number of marriages fell below half a million for the first time in 90 years. Economic conditions, high costs of raising children, and traditional gender roles are major deterrents to both marriage and childbearing. Furthermore, the burden of elder care has shifted more onto younger women, creating conflicts with traditional expectations.

Japan’s demanding work culture has also been identified as a major barrier to parenthood, particularly for women. While men are entitled to 12 months of parental leave, only 3% took it in 2019. In an attempt to address this, the Tokyo government is introducing a four-day workweek for its 160,000+ state employees, with parents of young children allowed to leave work two hours early, albeit with a pay cut. However, experts argue that until gender roles shift and fathers take on a greater role in child-rearing, work-life balance measures may have limited impact.

Faced with a shrinking domestic workforce, Japan is slowly beginning to embrace immigration as a partial solution. The government has eased visa restrictions to attract foreign workers, particularly in industries such as elder care and agriculture. By 2040, Japan aims to triple the number of foreign workers. However, experts caution that immigration alone will not be enough to offset the country’s demographic decline.

Japan’s population has been shrinking for the past 15 years, with the current population standing at approximately 125 million. By 2070, projections suggest it could fall to just 87 million, with the proportion of elderly citizens rising from 30% to 40%.

Policymakers have warned that Japan has only until 2030 to reverse the demographic trend. However, deep-rooted cultural and economic barriers make the task increasingly difficult.