Population and climate: looming catastrophe

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Pakistan's population growth has long been a pressing concern, but its implications for climate change, urban planning and economic sustainability are now reaching a breaking point. With nearly 250 million people and an annual growth rate of over 2%, Pakistan is one of the most rapidly expanding populations in the world.

While policymakers often highlight the burden on infrastructure and resources, little attention is paid to the irreversible environmental degradation caused by this unchecked expansion. The depletion of green spaces, erratic weather patterns and declining urban sustainability are all consequences of a population that has outpaced both planning and natural resources.

One of the most alarming manifestations of population pressure is its impact on climate. Pakistan, already one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, is experiencing extreme weather variations. The recent four-month-long dry spell in Rawalpindi, once a region with regular rainfall, is symptomatic of this shift. Islamabad, a city historically known for its lush green belts, is witnessing increasing temperatures and declining rainfall due to relentless urbanisation. Trees that once helped regulate the microclimate have been sacrificed to accommodate an ever-growing populace, exacerbating heatwaves and reducing groundwater recharge.

In addition to declining rainfall, Pakistan has seen a rise in climate-induced disasters. Flash floods, exacerbated by deforestation and urban sprawl, have wreaked havoc in major cities. The monsoon patterns, once predictable, are now erratic, resulting in either devastating floods or prolonged droughts. This unpredictability directly affects agriculture, the backbone of Pakistan's economy, thereby exacerbating food insecurity and inflation.

All major cities in Pakistan are now facing environmental ruin. Green belts are vanishing under the weight of new housing societies that continue to sprawl with little regard for ecological sustainability. In Islamabad, the Margalla Hills, a critical carbon sink, have been encroached upon by unchecked construction. In Lahore, the Ravi Riverfront project and other similar ventures have threatened centuries-old ecological systems in the name of 'development'.

Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and economic hub, is facing its own set of environmental challenges. Overpopulation, pollution and unregulated construction have taken a severe toll on the city's fragile ecosystem. Perhaps the most alarming issue is the receding sea, which is changing the coastline and increasing the risk of saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies. Unchecked land reclamation projects and industrial encroachments have disrupted the natural balance, making the city more vulnerable to rising temperatures and flooding. Without proper coastal management and sustainable urban planning, Karachi risks facing an ecological disaster in the coming years.

Pakistan's urban expansion is haphazard, driven by real estate interests rather than environmental considerations. Housing societies are being developed on former forests, agricultural land and water recharge zones. The loss of these natural buffers makes cities more prone to flooding while simultaneously depleting their ability to regulate temperatures. What should have been planned, sustainable urban expansion has instead become an exercise in reckless land-grabbing, with irreversible consequences for future generations.

A growing population comes with an increasing demand for resources. Ideally, a nation should allocate its funds toward education, healthcare and social welfare to uplift its citizens. However, Pakistan finds itself trapped in a vicious cycle where resources are disproportionately spent on simply sustaining its ever-expanding populace.

Basic necessities such as food, water and energy are becoming more expensive, with inflation disproportionately affecting the poorest citizens. The government is forced to divert funds toward food subsidies and emergency relief rather than investing in long-term developmental projects. The result? Today, nearly half of Pakistan's population lives below the poverty line, unable to access quality education or healthcare.

Moreover, employment opportunities are not keeping pace with population growth. With a youth bulge entering the job market, there is an increasing mismatch between demand and supply. This not only fuels unemployment but also contributes to urban crime and social unrest, further destabilising an already fragile society.

Pakistan must recognise that its development goals cannot be achieved without addressing the twin crises of overpopulation and environmental degradation. There is an urgent need for a national policy that prioritises sustainable urban planning, family planning and environmental conservation.

First, Pakistan must invest in population control programmes, particularly in rural areas where birth rates remain high. Access to family planning services, education for women and awareness campaigns must be at the forefront of national policy. Countries that have successfully reduced population growth, such as Bangladesh and Iran, provide valuable lessons in how state intervention can yield positive results.

Second, urban expansion must be regulated. The government must enforce strict environmental impact assessments before approving new housing projects. Reforestation projects should be prioritised, and green belts must be protected through legislation. Incentivising vertical rather than horizontal expansion could help conserve land while accommodating growing urban populations.

Third, climate resilience must be integrated into policy planning. Water conservation projects, afforestation initiatives and renewable energy investments can mitigate some of the damage already done. Moreover, a shift toward sustainable agriculture, with an emphasis on water-efficient crops, can help balance food security with environmental conservation.

Pakistan's overpopulation is not just an economic issue, it is an existential threat to the country's environmental and social fabric. Unless immediate action is taken to regulate growth, protect natural ecosystems and invest in long-term solutions, Pakistan will find itself unable to cope with the cascading crises of poverty, environmental degradation and climate disasters. The time for intervention is now, before the damage becomes irreparable.