UEFA Champions League Matchday 8 preview: 25 teams await fate
The Champions League’s new league-phase format reaches a dramatic conclusion on Wednesday, with 25 of the 36 teams still uncertain of their fate.
With 16 of the 18 matches holding major implications, the competition's first season under the revamped system has delivered on UEFA’s promise of heightened excitement.
All fixtures will kick off simultaneously at 20:00 GMT, ensuring a dynamic evening where every goal could shift the standings.
Notably, Manchester City face the threat of an early exit after their 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain last week, while Liverpool are confirmed for the last 16, and Arsenal are on the brink of securing direct passage. Aston Villa and Celtic, who face each other, remain in a precarious position.
This season marks a departure from the traditional group stage, replacing it with a single league table where the top eight teams advance directly to the last 16.
Clubs finishing between 9th and 24th must contest a knockout play-off round, while those ranked 25th or lower are eliminated without a Europa League safety net.
What’s at stake for clubs?
Manchester City’s must-win scenario:
Initially tipped by Opta to top the table, Manchester City are currently in 25th place and face elimination.
Their fate remains in their hands, with a home match against Club Brugge, a team just three points ahead but with a worse goal difference.
For City, it’s simple: win, and they qualify for the play-offs.
PSG’s last chance:
After a disastrous start, PSG’s comeback victory over City has kept their hopes alive.
A win away at 24th-placed Stuttgart would secure a play-off spot.
A draw could also be enough, but a loss would see Stuttgart leapfrog them and put last season’s semi-finalists at risk of elimination.
Liverpool, Arsenal, and Villa’s positions:
Table-topping Liverpool have already secured a top-eight finish with a perfect record. They need just a point at PSV to confirm first place. However, given the struggles of other major teams, their next opponent could still be Bayern, Juventus, PSG, or defending champions Real Madrid.
Pre-tournament predictions saw Arsenal finishing eighth most often, but with five wins from seven, they currently sit third.
If they beat Girona and Barcelona drop points, they could move up. However, a loss combined with other results could see them drop out of the top eight, though Opta puts that scenario at just 0.04%.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa, currently ninth, are guaranteed to advance but need a result against Celtic to break into the top eight. A win would improve their chances, especially if teams above them slip up.
The new format has kept the competition intense until the very last whistle, with standings shifting throughout the night. Unlike previous group stages where top clubs could seal qualification early, this season’s structure ensures that every result has major consequences.
The financial stakes of qualification
Beyond sporting glory, Champions League progression carries major financial rewards. Each club in the league phase receives a base payout of €18.62 million (£15.6 million), with additional bonuses for wins, draws, and final league position. The top-eight finishers secure a €2 million (£1.7 million) bonus, while the play-off round provides an extra €840,000 (£720,000).
The ultimate prize for the Champions League winners stands at €25 million (£21.1 million), making every match in the league phase crucial to a club’s financial outlook.
A successful format change?
With only two dead rubbers and multiple clubs still fighting for progression, UEFA's switch to the new format has intensified the competition.
The league-phase model has led to marquee clashes in the early rounds, including Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona, and PSG facing Manchester City and Arsenal.
As Wednesday’s decisive matches unfold, the Champions League’s fresh format will face its biggest test yet—delivering a final day that could redefine European football’s premier club competition.