Major non-Nato ally yet not an ally?

White House National Security Advisor John Kirby, during a press briefing a few days back, said that Pakistan was never a technical ally of Washington. He emphasised that there existed no alliance or treaty between the two countries to term Pakistan as a United States ally.

I remember the days when the United States began its global war on terror and Afghanistan became the ground zero of that war. The Musharraf-Bush chemistry pushed back all technicalities of the US-Pakistan relationship of that era and the Pakistani leadership sold to its public the American kindness for Pakistan. One such kindness was awarding Pakistan with the title of a 'major non-NATO ally'.

Seen in the hindsight, we were always a 'major non-technical non-NATO ally' more to be used during the war rather to be benefited during or after the war. If technically we are not the allies of the US then why don't we consider being non-technical allies of all great powers? Why not seek a non-technical trilateral alliance with Russia and China and also remain an American ally - the Indian diplomatic art of non-alignment by being technically non-aligned yet aligned with all great powers. Why not reach out to China and Russia for a non-technical alliance?

If one looks at the perceivable obstacles to the formulation of this trilateral alliance, three factors stand out as significant obstacles. The first is the history of bitter past between Russia and Pakistan. The second is the current defence and strategic partnership between Russia and India and also the hostile relations between China and India. Lastly Pakistan's strategic choice of not balancing its foreign policy and continuing to remain in the American bloc.

Despite having signed a friendship treaty with the erstwhile Soviet Union in 1971, India went ahead to create a balance in its foreign policy by becoming a defence and strategic partner of the US. It has been able to sign a civil nuclear deal with the US and also acts as its strategic partner to challenge and contain China in the region.

This example actually gives great incentive to the political leadership of all the three countries in the proposed alliance to treat the historic realities of the past as mere relics and not emphasise on difficulties but seek future opportunities. One such opportunity for Pakistan could be to seek the Russian assistance in building its civil nuclear capacity on the similar lines as India sought from the US.

There will be pressure against the buildup of this proposed alliance not only form the US and its alliance from abroad but also internally from the military and defence bureaucracies of the three countries. The political leadership of all the three countries will have to rise to meet both challenges. Not just for Pakistan but for all the developing countries in the region, the realisation is there that tomorrow's world will be capital- and technology-intensive; and to become a modern welfare state, big armies will have to be replaced with small armies with smart weapons. Both Russia and China can contribute to such a defence arrangement between them and the developing countries of the region. Pakistan especially can benefit if it realises that the growing cost of the modern weapon systems is becoming unaffordable and it is difficult to sustain the complete spectrum of capabilities of modern defence on national basis. Being part of this trilateral alliance can address many dimensions of its concerns including the security concerns.

The strategic concept of the alliance can focus not just on the military instruments of conventional and nuclear weapons that the three countries have but also the political instruments of conflict prevention, prevention of transnational terrorism, and management of any developing crisis. The maritime part of Indo-Pacific region spanning the Indian and Pacific oceans is likely to become a significant part of geopolitical strategies and geopolitical tensions in the 21st century. It is not only the rise of China and its developing greater influence in the region but also the greater prominence of Russia in the context of the 'last frontier' - the Arctic - that the importance of this alliance achieves a much greater significance in the future geopolitics of the region.

The current American pivot Asia policy is bringing American influence in the region to safeguard its strategic interests built on its narrative of dividing the world into pro-China and anti-China world blocs, but a greater part of the world is not ready to accept China as an America-declared geopolitical threat. Dominating and exercising influence and control in the Indo-Pacific region in the coming years is likely to become the greatest challenge and Pakistan's strategic importance and relevance in the alliance stands out from the point of view of regional security, the access it provides to the Indian ocean, and the functioning of the future international system under the order of multipolarity.

Pakistan can perform the important role of providing the maritime power projection in the Asia-Pacific region to both China and Russia. The alliance could easily serve to secure just and lasting peace and strategic balance in the region. From Pakistan's perspective in the words of President Vladimir Putin, we can continue to pursue the policy of remaining an American colony or become a sovereign state. Some of the strategic ends that this alliance may seek to achieve may include the dominance and control of Indian Ocean, alliance's military integration, and alliance's nuclear posture. Hypocritical US policies, its unconditional support to Israel in Gaza and its militarised foreign policy that has escalated the war in Ukraine are all factors that are driving the countries with a colonial past to alienate themselves from the order of liberal internationalism. The hope is for the formulation of a new balance of power in a modified regional and global order under the banner of multipolarity. There is no other way of contesting the West-imposed order except through changing the balance of power in the region. And the proposed trilateral alliance can be a great driver for this shift in the balance of power. If the Asia-Pacific region is vying for lasting peace then it will only come through new alliances, partnerships and a change in the balance of power.