Climate change fuels devasting Los Angeles wildfires, experts warn

Climate change is intensifying the frequency of extreme weather patterns, with scientists now linking these fluctuations to the devastating wildfires sweeping across Los Angeles. The rapid shifts between wet and dry conditions—dubbed "climate whiplash"—have created a dangerous surplus of tinder-dry vegetation, ripe for ignition. 

A new study reveals that climate change has increased the likelihood of these "whiplash" conditions globally by 31-66% since the mid-20th century. Researchers highlight California as a stark example of this phenomenon, where years of severe drought were followed by torrential rainfall in 2022 and 2023. However, a return to exceptionally dry conditions in late 2024 has set the stage for a catastrophic fire season. 

At least five people have lost their lives in the wildfires, with over 179,000 residents forced to evacuate. Hundreds of structures have been reduced to ashes as flames consume vast swathes of the Los Angeles area. 

"This whiplash sequence in California has increased fire risk twofold," explained Dr Daniel Swain from UCLA, the study's lead author. "The wet years fuelled rapid vegetation growth, which was then desiccated by extreme dryness and warmth, creating ideal conditions for wildfires." 

 The Expanding Atmospheric Sponge 

The study highlights how a warming atmosphere exacerbates these cycles. For every degree Celsius of warming, the air can hold and release 7% more water—acting as an "expanding atmospheric sponge." This leads to more intense rainfall during wet periods and heightened evaporation during dry spells, leaving vegetation parched and highly flammable. 

Prof Sir Brian Hoskins, Chair of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, emphasized the global implications of this research. "The devastation caused by the LA wildfires illustrates how precipitation volatility drives both floods and fires. Alarmingly, climate models indicate a potential doubling of this volatility with 3°C of warming, which is becoming increasingly probable." 

 Warming World and Wildfire Risk 

California's steep terrain and naturally fire-prone vegetation further amplify the severity of wildfires. Decades of drought followed by wet conditions fostered rapid plant growth, which has now dried out under soaring temperatures and minimal rainfall. 

"California has seen some of the most significant increases in the length and extremity of fire weather seasons globally in recent decades," noted Professor Stefan Doerr, Director of the Centre for Wildfire Research at Swansea University. He cautioned that while climate change has worsened conditions conducive to fires, it is too early to determine its precise role in this particular wildfire outbreak. 

A growing threat 

As the global climate continues to warm, scientists warn of more frequent and severe "fire weather" days, extending fire seasons and amplifying the risk worldwide. In Los Angeles, downtown rainfall since October has been just 0.16 inches—over four inches below average—further underscoring the challenges posed by climate whiplash. 

For Californians, the devastating wildfires serve as a harrowing reminder of the increasing volatility of a changing climate—and the urgent need for action.