PSX hits peak with 80% growth
Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has maintained its strong performance for the second consecutive year, posting an impressive growth of around 80%.
In 2024, the benchmark KSE-100 index surged by almost 80% as on December 28, the market closed at 111,351 points. It indicated an impressive rise over the same period of the previous year, when the market closed at 62,052.
This growth trajectory was further evident while looking back at December 30, 2022, when the market stood at 40,420 points, reflecting a 46% increase by the close of 2023.
JS Global Deputy Research Head Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia said the KSE-100 index reached an all-time high of 117k in intra-day trading during CY24, a remarkable achievement despite significant foreign portfolio investors' selling driven by rebalancing activities.
In terms of fiscal year 2023-24, the KSE-100 surged by 89.24% to 78,445 points on June 30, 2024 compared to 41,453 points in the previous year.
"This remarkable growth restored market capitalisation to Rs10.37 trillion, which shows a rebound to peak levels last seen in 2017," the PSX wrote in the annual report for 2024 "Ode to Service".
The KSE-100 posted an impressive gain of 70% in CY24, its highest return since 2002 and becoming the second best-performing global market after Argentina, according to the Pakistan Strategy 2025 released by AKD.
The index is forecast to reach 165,215 points by December 2025, reflecting a potential upside of 55.5%. This performance highlights the growing appeal of the PSX among global investors.
Increased activity
Starting at lower levels at the beginning of 2024, the KSE-100 index experienced steady growth, with significant momentum building from April onwards. The second half of the year witnessed a sharp rally, when the index reached the high of 117,039.18 before slightly stabilising.
By December 27, 2024, the KSE-100 closed at 111,351.17, near its peak levels. The 52-week range for the year was between 58,758.48 and 117,039.18, reflecting substantial recovery and growth. On December 28, the market recorded a trading volume of 816 million shares.
Trading activity reached unprecedented levels in 2024. The traded volume soared to 151.4 billion shares, almost double from 2023, while the daily traded value averaged Rs22.1 billion, demonstrating heightened investor participation and confidence, according to the PSX report. Macroeconomic reforms played a pivotal role in supporting the market's strong performance. Interest rates are projected to decline to single digits in CY25, driven by structural adjustments under the IMF's Extended Fund Facility. Inflation, which peaked at 38% in May 2023, has since been anchored to single digits, significantly boosting investor confidence, according to AKD.
New listings
The year saw the listing of 11 new companies, including prominent entities like the Symmetry Group and TPL REIT Fund-I. These equity listings collectively raised Rs103.3 billion, which showed growing corporate interest in tapping the PSX potential.
PSX played a pivotal role in facilitating the issuance of 22 government of Pakistan's Ijarah Sukuk instruments that raised Rs687.81 billion. Additionally, the introduction of a one-year Discounted Ijarah Sukuk provided innovative opportunities for Shariah-compliant investments, further diversifying market offerings, according to the PSX.
Two new exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including the Mahaana Islamic Index ETF, were launched in 2024. These ETFs focused on Shariah-compliant and sector-specific investments, expanding the options for investors and promoting inclusivity in financial instruments, according to AKD.
Sector-specific highlights
Several sectors emerged as top performers in 2024, including banks, fertiliser, energy, and technology. These sectors benefitted from a stable currency, monetary easing, and reform-driven growth.
In the medium term, textile exports are expected to lead the market, while technology remains poised for long-term double-digit expansion, reflecting the evolving dynamics of Pakistan's economy, AKD said.
Foreign investors have shown increased interest in Pakistani equities, spurred by the country's improved weight in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index (6.4%). Furthermore, the anticipated reclassification of Pakistani equities into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has created additional momentum, with seven stocks meeting the reclassification criteria, it added.
PSX introduced a sophisticated primary market auction system for government debt securities. The implementation of the One-Share Lot System further enhanced liquidity and aligned the exchange with international standards.
The exchange prioritised digital expansion by launching tools like the My Portfolio web app and the PSX WhatsApp Service, which provided real-time market updates and investor education. These innovations made market participation more accessible and user-friendly.
Economic outlook
Pakistan's economic growth remained modest in FY24, with GDP expanding by 2.5%. However, projections indicate an uptick to 2.7-3.2% in FY25 and 4.3% in FY26, driven by industrial and services sector recovery. The current account is expected to maintain a surplus for the next two years, supported by strong remittance inflows and moderate import growth, according to AKD.
Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia of JS Global said the State Bank continues monetary easing, reducing the policy rate by a further 200 basis points (bps) earlier this month to 13%, driven by a faster-than-expected decline in inflation. The Consumer Price Index for November 2024 stood at 4.9%.
The State Bank has cut interest rate by 900 bps since the easing cycle began in July 2024. Real interest rates now stand at 9%.
He forecast FY25 inflation at 6.5%, with a potential sixth interest rate cut, though smaller. He emphasised the importance of foreign capital, political stability, and IMF alignment for Pakistan's macroeconomic stability and investment prospects.
Fiscal reforms resulted in a reduction in fiscal deficit to 5% of GDP in FY24, with further improvements anticipated, according to AKD. The government has implemented structural adjustments in taxation, energy tariffs, and investment frameworks to strengthen economic resilience and promote sustainable growth.
Ahsan Mehanti, MD of Arif Habib Commodities, noted the PSX's strong performance despite low foreign direct investment and foreign outflows, driven by low inflation and SBP policy easing.
He highlighted IMF disbursements and SBP oversight in stabilising the rupee. Looking ahead, falling lending rates, positive earnings forecasts, and regulatory changes in sectors like banking, pharma, and auto lending are expected to push the PSX to new records in 2025.
The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has emerged as a key driver of foreign direct investment, targeting annual inflows of $5 billion. Meanwhile, CPEC Phase 2.0 focuses on industrial, agricultural, and trade development, with significant emphasis on infrastructure and renewable energy projects, providing a transformative impact on Pakistan's economic landscape.