Pakistan's rice exports to grow

Pakistani rice, an important commodity that ensures food security and earns foreign exchange for the country, is likely to continue its rising streak in export markets next year as well, as the commodity has been widely admired in the ongoing year due to good quality and aroma, commodities' sector experts said.

Despite all odds, uncertainty and propaganda, Pakistan's rice exports in November 2024 performed exceptionally well with 17% growth in quantity and 5.6% rise in dollar value. Exports of non-Basmati rice rose to 781,882 tons in November 2024 as compared to 665,851 tons in November 2023.

During the first five months (Jul-Nov) of the current fiscal year, Basmati rice volumes increased to 370,000 tons from 244,664 tons in the same period of last year, which translated into a growth of 51%.

"With the pace witnessed in the past five months, we can easily predict a 10% surge in rice exports during the first half of financial year 2024-25," said Hamid Malik, a commodities' expert, while talking to The Express Tribune.

This feat, he added, had been achieved by Pakistani exporters in spite of stiff competition with major rice growing countries, especially India, which has lifted a ban on exports of all kinds of rice varieties, resulting in "tough competition with our rice exports".

A few months ago, India began lowering the minimum export price of Basmati rice and eventually removed it altogether to pave the way for exports at lowest possible prices.

India also released government stocks meant for the Public Distribution System through open market operations, which were ultimately diverted for exports. "They export highly subsidised rice, originally allocated for the domestic PDS, by misdeclaring it to the Indian Customs Authority at Kandla port," Malik said.

The Indian government has also devalued its rupee by 2.20% since the start of new rice season in July 2024. At present, the brown Basmati price in Pakistan is $180 higher than in India.

"Our neighbouring country is facing challenges in the World Trade Organisation, where complaints have been submitted by the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Paraguay. Moreover, investigation has been launched by Indian port authorities at Kandla port," he added.

Pakistani rice has exhibited strong performance on the global front in 2024, with demand growing from Far Eastern countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines, which were hit by the El Nino weather phenomenon. This has impacted their agricultural production, especially rice, which is considered a staple food.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, in financial year 2023-24, rice exports reached $3.9 billion, up 78% compared to the previous year. Now, in the first five months of FY25, $1.515 billion worth of rice was exported, which was nearly 35% higher than the corresponding period of last year.

Thus, Pakistan has emerged as a leading rice exporter to these countries after India banned white rice exports. Additionally, Pakistan has got substantial orders from Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia and has offered attractive rates and superior quality.

"We expect the Philippines to be the largest rice importer in 2025 and Pakistan has bright chances of securing maximum orders due to the good-quality rice it supplied in 2024. Pakistan will be among top four rice exporters in 2025 along with India, Thailand and Vietnam," Malik said.

He cautioned that Basmati exports would face stiff competition from India due to high subsidy on guaranteed buying at a fixed price, the minimum support price, subsidised fertiliser, pesticides, seeds and irrigation water. Still, Pakistan's rice sector is sustainable, efficient, free of concessions and subsidised inputs with no state intervention at the time of buying.