Fall of Assad: uncertainty grips the Middle East

The swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad's 24-year regime in Syria has sent shockwaves across the region, reshaping the political landscape of the Middle East. Within just 11 days, opposition forces seized control of Damascus, marking the end of Assad's authoritarian rule. Chaotic scenes unfolded in the Syrian capital as citizens stormed the presidential palace, looting valuables, taking selfies and toppling statues of the Assad family. Under the cover of darkness, Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, bringing an end to the Assad dynasty's 54-year reign over Syria.

Syria, a nation of over 25 million people, is predominantly Sunni Muslim, with around 13% belonging to the Alawite Shia sect, which formed the bedrock of Assad's support. Bashar al-Assad rose to power in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who had ruled Syria for 29 years. Like his father, Bashar maintained an iron grip on the country with the backing of Russia and Iran. Political prisons were overcrowded with dissenters, and his regime ruthlessly suppressed opposition. However, geopolitical shifts, particularly Russia's focus on the Ukraine war and the weakening of Iran's regional influence, left Assad vulnerable.

For years, Assad relied on Russian airpower, Iranian support and Hezbollah fighters to maintain his regime. But as Russia diverted its military resources to Ukraine, its ability to assist Assad diminished. Simultaneously, Iran suffered heavy losses due to Israeli attacks, weakening its foothold in the region. Hezbollah, too, faced significant casualties in its battles against Israel. These developments allowed Syrian rebels to regroup and launch a successful uprising, dismantling Assad's regime and leaving his once-mighty military fractured.

The downfall of the Assad regime has profound implications for the Middle East, particularly for Russia and Iran, whose regional influence has taken a severe blow. Israel, however, views this as a strategic victory. With Hezbollah's supply routes from Iran now severed, Israel has taken advantage of the power vacuum, reinforcing its military presence in the Golan Heights. The United States and Israel, long supporters of anti-Assad forces, are now positioned to further their regional interests. Meanwhile, Lebanon has bolstered its border defences, wary of the instability spilling over.

The removal of Assad's regime has raised concerns about Syria's future. The possibility of sectarian violence and bloodshed, similar to what unfolded in Iraq after Saddam Hussein's fall or in Libya following Muammar Gaddafi's ouster, looms large. Syria now risks descending into chaos, becoming a fertile ground for extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda to regroup and expand their influence. The specter of Syria transforming into a failed state poses a grave threat to neighbouring countries.

The shifting dynamics in the region hint at a broader agenda. The current upheaval appears less about fostering democracy in Syria and more about advancing Israeli and Western strategic goals. The tightening of the noose around Iran is evident, with Israel's ambitions to curb Tehran's influence in full swing. If Syria's fate serves as a blueprint, Iraq and Iran could face similar destabilisation efforts in the future. Israel envisions a Middle East where its dominance is unchallenged, but this trajectory could lead to unprecedented regional instability.

As 2025 approaches, Iran braces itself for escalating challenges. The unraveling of Assad's regime has created an opening for adversaries to target Tehran. Islamic nations must rise to the occasion, ensuring that Syria's tragedy is not exploited by external powers. They must prioritise the well-being of the Syrian people and work collectively to prevent the country from spiraling into civil war. Failure to act could see Syria join the ranks of war-torn Arab states, its people paying the ultimate price for global power struggles.