Environmental cost of population growth

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The recent smog enveloping large parts of the country has drawn significant attention from both the media and government circles. It is encouraging to see the conversation shifting from routine political matters to a critical issue that deeply affects people's lives and livelihoods. The closure of schools and businesses and the disruption of commercial activities underscore our vulnerability to environmental threats - many of which are a direct result of our own actions. Amidst the discourse on the causes and implications of smog, one critical factor remains conspicuously overlooked: the significant impact of Pakistan's rapid population growth. The correlation between population growth and environmental degradation is undeniable. As our population expands, so does our consumption of fossil fuels, leading to increased emissions and air pollution. According to the WHO, exposure to poor air quality is a significant contributor to health crises in Pakistan. The WHO estimates that 42% of deaths from stroke and ischemic heart disease in Pakistan are caused by air pollution annually. Moreover, the country's air quality is alarmingly out of compliance with WHO guidelines, with particulate matter levels ten times higher than recommended. These staggering figures underscore the urgent need to address the root causes of air pollution.

Pakistan's population has more than doubled since 1990, with an estimated 245 million people currently residing in the country. This rapid growth has fuelled unprecedented urbanisation, with major cities like Lahore, Faisalabad and Karachi experiencing high population density. The strain on resources, infrastructure and the environment has intensified the smog crisis. Urban sprawl, combined with inadequate planning, has exacerbated pollution levels, creating a vicious cycle of environmental and public health challenges.

The transportation sector, often cited as a primary contributor to smog, is indeed a significant factor, followed by industrial emissions. However, it is essential to recognise that the growing population's increasing demand for transportation, energy and resources is the underlying driver of this pollution. According to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, our population grew by 16% from 2017 to 2023, while the number of vehicles on the roads surged by nearly 49% in the same period. The highest growth was recorded in two-wheeled motorcycles, which saw a staggering 68% increase. Although motorcycles are relatively fuel-efficient, they contribute disproportionately higher levels of hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions (major components of air pollution and smog) compared to cars.

This explosive growth in vehicle numbers mirrors the broader consumption of fossil fuels to meet household energy requirements, further worsening air quality. Addressing the smog crisis, therefore, requires more than just regulating vehicle emissions or switching to cleaner fuels. It necessitates tackling the root cause: rapid population growth. Bringing down fertility rates to sustainable levels can help balance population growth with available resources, reducing the strain on infrastructure, energy and the environment.

To effectively combat the smog crisis and mitigate the impacts of climate change, Pakistan must adopt a multi-faceted approach that addresses population growth, urban planning and environmental sustainability. Equally important is raising public awareness about the link between population growth and environmental health, empowering citizens to make informed choices about family size and resource consumption.

As the demand for resources continues to escalate, the environment will bear an increasingly heavy burden. It is time for policymakers, experts and citizens to come together and develop a comprehensive, population-sensitive strategy to combat air pollution and mitigate the impact of climate change. By doing so, Pakistan can pave the way for a healthier, more liveable future for generations to come - a future where economic development, environmental sustainability and public health go hand in hand.