A geopolitical trap set by Assad and allies

Damascus has fallen within ten days. The plethora of opinions and chaotic uncertainties has thickened the fog of war. The discussion on how and why it happened encompasses a range of hypotheses from unwillingness to inability to fight. Nonetheless, it is irrelevant whether the Syrian government lost its will to fight or is incapable of fighting. A recapitulation of events, however, stays relevant.

Towards the end of November, a ceasefire was signed between Lebanon and Israel, and the very next day, a deflection of Al-Qaeda under the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led by former Al-Qaeda Commander Abu Muhamad Golani along with multiple other Western-defined terrorist groups based in Adlib, attacked Aleppo. Video evidence shows they had Western artillery such as tanks, guns, grenades and even drones. However, they found practically no resistance as the Syrian Army defected and dispersed.

Facing no resistance, Golani in his new upgraded attire - a Zelensky-style fatigue shirt, trimmed beard, and no turban - reached Damascus in less than 10 days. En route to Damascus, he and his rent-a-jihadi mob orchestrated a PR campaign, announced pardon at every pit stop, and opened the gates of prisons in every city. The Western media campaigned about him and his mob as a moderate Islamic opposition of Syria and even arranged an interview which was later broadcasted on Western legacy media. The help from Russia, Iran and Iraq simmered down at their starting point as Bashar al-Assad fled and left a presidential decree of transferring power to the HTS without any clash.

HTS is a new brand name of the amalgamation of Al-Nusra, Daesh Iraq and Levant, Daesh Khorasan and many other big and small predominantly Takfiri Salafi jihadi groups all reminiscent of Al-Qaeda, infamous for their insolence and fondness for beheading people. Reports say this time these jihadi forces comprise recruits mainly Tajiks, Uzbeks, Uyghurs, Ukrainians and a few Iranians and Afghans. Analysts point to a combined effort of the US, the UK, France, Israel and Türkiye to train and arm these groups to topple Assad. There are multiple explanations ranging from the Syrian army being demoralised and underpaid to them being bribed.

I believe it was a trap deliberately set by Assad and his allies. Assad some time ago went to his son's graduation ceremony in Moscow and left his immediate family there. Later the Wagner Group was assigned to relocate his extended family, and before the event, the entire Alawi Tribe was shifted to Russia by Wagner. Iran, on the other hand, is admitting to having been informed in advance. It also does not fit into my calculation that Türkiye would openly antagonise Russia, nor would it openly side with Israel if it wants to face its domestic population.

So according to my analysis Russia, Syria and Iran were aware of the plan, but both Iran and Russia decided not to pursue their more viable goals. As they rightly figured out that this entire rent-a-jihadi fiasco is to overstretch their lines of combat and open multiple fronts for Russia and Iran to directly engage in. Assad, after resisting for years, finally decided to leave as per his allies' advice to avoid further bloodshed of his countrymen; and Türkiye to settle its border dispute with Kurds would have seized the opportunity to create some kind of a buffer zone.

Indeed, the Western empire has fallen into a trap where they have stretched their combat fronts even more, by having established so-called moderate Islamic Rule in Syria with its proxies. The loot and plunder will soon reach beyond control and in a decade or so we will see a humiliating Western exit. It is also possible that sooner or later, Iran, Russia and China will consolidate their power and re-emerge in Syria on their own terms and at their own time; and Golani will face immense shame for being unable to free Golan Heights even after wearing a Western knighthood.

Just as a final point, it took four decades for Russia to come back in Afghanistan but in a much favorable and stronger position.