Can Starlink be a game changer for connectivity?

The potential entry of Starlink, Elon Musk's satellite-based internet service, into Pakistan, is garnering attention due to its potential to revolutionise the country's connectivity landscape. Pakistan's telecom sector has evolved significantly over the past two decades, but it still faces challenges in terms of infrastructure development, especially in rural and remote areas. The possible inclusion of Starlink could address these gaps, but a closer look at the sector's performance over the years offers crucial insights into the road ahead.

Since the liberalisation of Pakistan's telecom market in the early 2000s, the country has seen impressive growth in mobile phone penetration and internet connectivity. The privatisation of Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL) in 2005 opened the door for private players, increasing competition and leading to improved services and innovation in the sector. The introduction of mobile networks brought a surge in mobile subscribers, and by 2010, Pakistan had become one of the largest mobile markets in the region.

Despite these strides, challenges have persisted. The country's telecom infrastructure is still concentrated in urban areas, leaving rural regions underserved. According to the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), while mobile phone penetration reached around 80% in 2022, broadband internet coverage remained limited to less than 40% of the population. This has resulted in a significant digital divide, hindering access to essential services, such as online education, telemedicine, and e-commerce, particularly in underdeveloped areas.

In 2014, the auctioning of the 3G and 4G spectrum marked a pivotal moment for Pakistan's telecom sector. The rollout of 4G services offered faster internet speeds and improved service quality in major cities. Yet, despite these advancements, the internet infrastructure in rural Pakistan remained inadequate. Furthermore, high-speed internet services have generally been confined to urban areas, while remote regions continue to rely on slower 2G networks or satellite connections.

The entry of Starlink into Pakistan could be viewed as the latest development in a series of attempts to modernise the country's telecommunications infrastructure. Compared to previous technological transitions, such as the rollout of 3G/4G and the government's ongoing efforts to introduce 5G, Starlink's satellite-based approach presents a different solution—one that bypasses the need for ground-based infrastructure entirely.

Initial promise, limited reach

The introduction of 3G and 4G networks in Pakistan brought a wave of enthusiasm, as mobile data became more accessible. With download speeds improving and mobile internet services expanding, users in urban areas benefited significantly. However, rural areas continued to face connectivity challenges, as the high cost of infrastructure deployment in these regions limited the expansion of 3G/4G services. The government's initial plans to roll out 3G and 4G services faced delays, and even after launch, the coverage remained concentrated in urban centres. As a result, millions in rural areas were still unable to access fast and reliable internet.

Connecting the unconnected

In contrast, Starlink's satellite technology operates in a completely different way, relying on low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to provide internet services globally. This means that Starlink can potentially serve remote and underserved regions without requiring the costly and time-consuming deployment of ground-based infrastructure. Unlike previous technological efforts that struggled with extending service to rural Pakistan, Starlink promises to deliver high-speed internet to even the most isolated areas, where terrestrial solutions have fallen short.

Starlink's model is fundamentally different from previous telecom projects. While 3G/4G services rely on a series of mobile towers and fibre-optic cables to provide internet coverage, Starlink will use a network of satellites orbiting the earth, providing internet directly to user terminals on the ground. This approach could overcome the logistical challenges of connecting rural areas, where traditional broadband providers have been unable or unwilling to invest due to high costs.

5G and digital transformation

Looking ahead, the government's efforts to auction the 5G spectrum in 2024 are seen as an important step in modernising Pakistan's telecom sector. While 5G offers immense potential for improved internet speeds, low latency, and the growth of the Internet of Things (IoT), the rollout of 5G is expected to be costly and challenging. Major investments will be required to upgrade existing infrastructure, and rural areas may once again be left behind as operators focus on high-density urban zones. In this context, Starlink could act as a complementary solution, providing high-speed connectivity to regions where 5G infrastructure remains years away from implementation.

Starlink versus previous efforts

The introduction of new technologies has never been without regulatory hurdles in Pakistan. The 3G/4G rollout faced delays due to licensing issues and regulatory hurdles, and the government's push for 5G spectrum has encountered resistance and concerns regarding spectrum pricing and rollout timelines. Similarly, Starlink will need to navigate complex regulatory frameworks, including approval from the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) and compliance with national security standards outlined in the Pakistan Space Activity Rules. This is a challenge faced by many foreign technology providers entering the Pakistani market. However, the increasing push for modernisation, along with the government's push for digital infrastructure growth, suggests that Starlink may receive more favourable regulatory treatment compared to previous efforts.

Looking at the historical trajectory of Pakistan's telecom sector, the performance of past decisions has been mixed. While the liberalisation of the sector and the introduction of 3G/4G services have been positive steps, the country still faces significant connectivity challenges, especially in rural areas. Starlink represents an exciting new chapter, offering the potential to leapfrog traditional infrastructure limitations and bring high-speed internet to those who need it the most.

If Starlink successfully enters the Pakistani market, it could be a catalyst for positive change. The company's satellite internet service could address the connectivity gaps that have hindered rural development, providing access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities for millions of Pakistanis.

While past efforts like 3G, 4G, and even the upcoming 5G rollout represent important milestones, Starlink offers the potential to bridge the last mile—the underserved areas that have been neglected by traditional telecom infrastructure. With the right regulatory and logistical frameworks in place, Starlink could be the key to unlocking Pakistan's digital future.

THE WRITER IS A MEMBER OF PEC AND HAS A MASTER'S IN ENGINEERING