Punjab's crop failure may lead to low cotton harvest
The continuous decline in Punjab's cotton production during the 2024-25 season may lead to one of the lowest harvests on record, fear crop growers.
Latest data released by Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) on Tuesday highlighted a concerning trend as cotton arrivals from farms to factories exhibited a significant drop compared to the previous year.
The total number of cotton bales that reached the market plummeted from 7.753 million in 2023-24 to 5.190 million in the current season, showing a decline of 33.05%.
As per cotton arrival data up to November 30, 2024, the slowdown was particularly pronounced in Punjab, where supplies decreased from 3.736 million bales to 2.459 million bales, registering a fall of 34.18%.
Similarly, Sindh experienced a reduction of 32% in cotton arrivals, which fell from 4.016 million bales to 2.731 million bales.
The performance of Punjab has sprung a surprise for the stakeholders given that the province used to contribute the lion's share to the annual national output. However, with an output of 2.459 million bales in the current season, the province has contributed merely 47.4% to the total supply, trailing Sindh, which is enjoying a share of 52.6%.
In terms of numbers, Punjab's output is 0.271 million bales less than that of Sindh, which signals the former's diminishing role in cotton production.
Southern Punjab, particularly Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan, had once been the powerhouse of cotton cultivation in the province. However, there has been a continuous decline in cotton yield in the region, particularly in Rahim Yar Khan, where competing crops such as sugarcane benefit from a better irrigation system.
Keeping in view the dwindling cotton arrivals, the growers and stakeholders fear the total crop size may be well below six million bales.
The sharply lower cotton output has put a strain on the already struggling textile sector in fiscal year 2024-25.
In response to the poor domestic supply, August 2024 saw a surge in raw cotton imports, which increased 50% in terms of quantity and 41% in value compared to the previous month. This increase indicates a growing reliance on foreign cotton to meet the demand of textile industry.
Cotton, which is often referred to as white gold, is not just a crop; it is a vital source of employment for millions of farmers and labourers. It plays an essential role in the textile sector, which is a cornerstone of Pakistan's economy, contributing 0.3% to the nation's GDP.
The combination of reduced arrivals, increased imports and declining domestic production raises significant concerns for the future of the cotton industry. The challenges faced by farmers and ginners could have far-reaching implications for the economy, employment and stability of the textile sector, which relies heavily on a consistent supply of cotton.
As the industry stakeholders grapple with the challenges, there is a critical need for strategic interventions and support for local cotton production.