Most Turks oppose referendum for Erdogan’s third term: poll

A majority of Turks have expressed opposition to a proposed constitutional amendment that would enable President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to run for a third term in the 2028 elections, according to a recent opinion poll.

The survey, conducted by Metropoll called 'Turkiye Pulse' in November, found that 66.3% of respondents were against changing the constitution to allow Erdoğan another presidential term.

The amendment would required for the president to seek re-election, if he chose to despite already securing two terms under the current presidential system.

Erdogan has led Turkey for over 21 years, initially as prime minister and then as president.

The Turkish Constitution stipulates that a president can only serve two consecutive five-year terms, provided elections are held as scheduled.

Erdoğan, first became president in 2014. He was re-elected in 2018 after a 2017 public referendum that approved shifting Turkey's governance from a parliamentary to a presidential system.

He was again elected as president in 2023.

His supporters argue that his presidency has brought stability, but critics accuse him of consolidating power and undermining democratic institutions.

The opposition to a constitutional change was particularly strong among voters from opposition parties.

Some 83% of those supporting the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) opposed the amendment, as did 87.6% of supporters of the nationalist opposition İYİ Party and 88.9% of those backing the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), local media reported.

Even within Erdogan’s own ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), opposition to the constitutional amendment was notable, with 40.2% of AKP voters rejecting the proposal. Additionally, 55% of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters also voiced opposition.

In contrast, only 28.5% of respondents supported the amendment, and 5.2% chose not to respond to the survey question.

The poll also revealed that Turkish citizens prefer other political figures to challenge Erdoğan in future elections.

The mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavaş, emerged as the most popular potential presidential candidate, with 37.8% of respondents naming him as their preferred choice. His approval ratings were higher than those of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who received 21.6% support.

The survey results also showed that 40% of Turks have a favourable opinion of Erdoğan, while 51.9% expressed dissatisfaction with his leadership.

Turkiye is expected to hold its next elections in 2028.

Following his re-election last year, Erdogan is currently in his final presidential term, according to the constitution, unless parliament calls for an early election.

Devlet Bahceli Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is allied with Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), made the suggestion during a speech to MHP lawmakers, that a constitutional amendment enabling Erdogan to stand for another term should be explored.

For the amendment to proceed, it would require the support of at least 360 lawmakers in Turkey's 600-seat parliament, or the backing of 360 MPs to trigger an early election. The AKP and its allies currently hold 321 seats, while the MHP holds 57 seats.