Saudi Arabia abandons pursuit of US treaty over Israel stalemate

Saudi Arabia has abandoned its pursuit of an ambitious defence treaty with Washington in return for normalising relations with Israel and is now pushing for a more modest military cooperation agreement, two Saudi and four Western officials told Reuters.

In a drive to get a wide-ranging mutual security treaty over the line earlier this year, Riyadh softened its position on Palestinian statehood, telling Washington that a public commitment from Israel to a two-state solution could be enough for the Gulf kingdom to normalise relations.

But with public anger in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East at fever pitch over Israel's military actions in Gaza, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has again made recognition of Israel conditional on it taking concrete steps to create a Palestinian state, two Saudi and three Western sources said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still eager to secure normalisation with the Saudi powerhouse as a historic milestone and a sign of broader acceptance in the Arab world, Western diplomats said.

However, he faces overwhelming opposition at home to any concessions to the Palestinians following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and knows any gesture in the direction of statehood would fracture his ruling coalition, they said.

With both leaders shackled for now by their domestic powerbases, Riyadh and Washington hope a more modest defence pact could be sealed before US President Joe Biden leaves the White House in January, the sources said.

A full-blown US-Saudi treaty would need to pass the US Senate with a two-thirds majority - and this would be a non-starter unless Riyadh recognises Israel, the six sources said.

The pact now under discussion would involve expanding joint military exercises and drills to address regional threats, mainly from Iran. It would foster partnerships between US and Saudi defence firms, with safeguards to prevent collaboration with China, the sources said.

The agreement would promote Saudi investment in advanced technologies, especially drone defence. The US would increase its presence in Riyadh through training, logistics and cyber security support, and may deploy a Patriot missile battalion to enhance missile defence and integrated deterrence.

But it would not be the kind of binding mutual defence treaty that would oblige US forces to protect the world's biggest oil exporter in the event of foreign attack.

"Saudi Arabia will get a security deal which will allow more military cooperation and sales of US weapons, but not a defence treaty similar to that of Japan or South Korea as initially sought," said Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Institute think-tank in Saudi Arabia.

The Trump dilemma

The picture is complicated further, however, by the impending arrival of Donald Trump in the White House. While Trump's plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict excludes any provisions for Palestinian statehood or sovereignty, he is a close ally of the Saudi crown prince.

Palestinian and some Arab officials worry that Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner - architect of the "Deal of the Century" and also a close ally of the crown prince - may ultimately persuade him to support the plan.

How the prince reconciles Saudi priorities with this shifting diplomatic landscape will be pivotal, defining both his leadership and the future of the peace process, diplomats said.

The current US administration has not given up hope for a deal on security guarantees before Biden leaves office in January, but a number of obstacles remain. One person in Washington familiar with the talks said there was reason to be sceptical about whether there was enough time to strike a deal.

US President Donald Trump speaks with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a photo session at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka in this file photo from June 2019. - Reuters

US officials are mindful that the kingdom is still interested in formally cementing the guarantees it has been seeking, especially to gain access to more advanced weapons, but are uncertain whether it would prefer to get it done under Biden, or wait for Trump, the source said. Reuters