Trump’s new hawk
Donald Trump is setting up his cabinet as he prepares to assume office as the 47th President of the US early next year. The speed at which he has made nominations indicates that the final lineup would take shape by Thanksgiving. And since the Republicans are now in control of the Senate, Trump’s nominees are all but confirmed.
The president-elect claims to have assembled the “most diverse cabinet in America’s history”, but some of his picks for key government positions have sparked controversies due to a mountain of baggage they carry. While Trump’s choice of Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense, Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence, and Robert Kennedy Jr. for Secretary Health may have shocked Washington DC, it is his pick of three-time Florida Senator Marco Rubio for Secretary of State that has sent shockwaves across the globe – especially in Latin America, China, and Iran.
Few would have thought that the son of an immigrant bartender from Cuba would rise from a humble background to become the world’s most powerful diplomat. However, it’s surprising that Trump is now calling the same Rubio “a strong advocate for our nation” who in the past he mocked as “Little Marco” and “Choke Artist”.
It’s more surprising because Trump claims to be an “America-First” noninterventionist focused on making America great again (MAGA), while Rubio is a neocon warmonger who has said in the past that “the world without American engagement is a world none of us wants to live with.” He also blamed the current international conflicts – Ukraine and Gaza in particular – on the disgraceful exit of US forces from Afghanistan. “The world is in total chaos, and you can link it all the way back to the day that we were run out of Afghanistan by the Taliban, humiliated in the way that we were. That was a signal to the world… that America is weak,” he said in a FoxNews interview on Oct 27.
Some political commentators, however, aren’t surprised because, in their analysis, Trump selected Rubio to save his administration from the shenanigans of the deep state because Rubio’s views are aligned with the neocon foreign policy establishment. “The bird-brains at State [Department] speak mainly neocon, like Rubio. And he could be the MAGA-to-neocon translator for Trump, packaging the 47th president’s vision in a way that’s palatable enough for them to not spend the entire time trying to regime-change him, like they did last time he was elected,” writes ‘RT’ columnist Rachel Marsden.
Rubio is known for his hawkish approach towards China and Iran, his criticism of Leftist Latin American governments, and his staunch support for Israel. Rubio’s statements available on his page on the US Senate website offer a sneak-peak into his views that would possibly shape up his foreign policy priorities. Let’s examine.
Iran obsession
Rubio is obsessed with Iran. He has pushed for a confrontationist approach toward Tehran going as far as calling the Islamic Republic a terrorist regime. He has openly supported overseas anti-Iran groups, including the Mujahideen-e-Khalq Organisation (MKO) which Tehran calls a “Zionist-backed terror cult” that seeks to topple the theocratic regime. Senator Rubio has publicly said that MKO and the US share a “common battle” that is to “give power back to the people.”
Rubio was also the brain behind the MAHSA Act enacted in April 2024 that imposed sanctions on foreign individuals and entities affiliated with Iran for “oppression, crimes against humanity, and international terrorism.” The law was named after Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian girl who, according to Rubio, was beaten to death in police custody, triggering nationwide deadly riots.
Rubio also celebrated the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, calling him “one of the bloodiest hardliners” who has left behind a reign of terror. “From his support of international terrorism, mass murders of the Iranian people, and other human right abuses, the world won’t soon forget Raisi’s atrocities,” Rubio said in a statement on May 20. Then in September, Rubio backed the Israeli airstrike that killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, saying that “wiping out not just Nasrallah, but the senior leadership of this evil organisation is a service to humanity.”
In Oct when Iran fired ballistic missiles at the Jewish state to avenge the killing of Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Rubio backed “Israel’s right to respond disproportionately to stop this [Iranian] threat.” Earlier on Sept 19, Rubio together with likeminded Senate colleagues criticised Biden administration’s failure to enforce the MASHA Act and the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum Act. “Only by exerting maximum pressure on members of the Iranian regime and connected individuals can we hope to stem its behavior,” they wrote in a letter to President Biden.
Rubio also repeatedly accused Iran of using Yemen’s Houthis as a proxy for its geopolitical interests. On Nov 1, he called on the Biden administration to redesignate the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organisation because the Iran-baked group “has only escalated its efforts to destabilise the Middle East by firing drones and missiles at Israel, disrupting international shipping, attacking US forces.”
Earlier on June 27, he wrote in an opinion piece in National Review that two American Navy SEALs were killed in an operation to stop an Iranian weapons shipment to the Houthis. “When our country’s enemies go unpunished for attacking Americans and paralysing the global economy, we are inviting them to continue their reckless, unchecked aggression,” he wrote.
Given Rubio’s antagonism towards and Trump’s previous tough dealing with Iran, Trump 2.0 is expected to reintroduce the “maximum pressure” policy by tightening sanctions on Iran’s oil industry to pressure the regime into agreeing to a new nuclear deal on American-Israeli terms or else he might allow Israel to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities, or even attempt regime change in the Islamic republic. The last two scenarios could trigger an apocalyptic war that could suck in the entire Middle East – something Trump cannot afford.
Israelophilia
Rubio, a self-proclaimed Zionist, supports Israel’s new settlement policy in the West Bank because he believes “God has given Palestine to Israel.” He is opposed to a ceasefire in Gaza and says Tel Aviv has a right to defend itself against “Hamas savages” who he blames for all civilian casualties in Gaza because, according to him, “Israel takes extraordinary steps to avoid civilian losses.”
On the first anniversary of Oct 7th attack, Rubio condemned the “barbaric and unprovoked assault against Israel” which resulted in “the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust.” He accused Hamas of mass rape of women, mutilation of babies, and slaughtering of countless families. “Israel is our strongest ally in the Middle East, and their enemies are our enemies. We must provide them with whatever it takes to defeat Hamas,” he said in a video message released on Oct 6.
While dehumanising the Palestinians and throwing his weight behind Israel’s genocidal campaign, Rubio on March 5 reintroduced the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad International Terrorism Support Prevention Act of 2024 to sanction foreign entities and governments supporting Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or their affiliates. “The barbaric terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7th by Hamas savages reaffirm the importance of sanctioning the group’s enablers and the governments who provide material support to these terrorists,” he stated while introducing the legislation.
Netzah Yehuda, an ultra-Orthodox battalion of Israel Defence Forces, has been accused of human rights violations during its military campaign in the West Bank. When the Biden administration was considering imposing sanctions on Netzah Yehuda, Rubio condemned the move in a statement on April 25. “This unit has been on the frontline against Hezbollah, which is terrorising Israelis in Judea and Samaria, and it is now working to dismantle Hamas brigades in Gaza. These impending sanctions … will stigmatise the entire IDF and encourage Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian regime,” he said.
Earlier this year, Israel’s military campaign in Gaza set off student protests at many college campuses of America. Protesters called for universities to dissociate themselves from companies advancing Israel’s Gaza campaign. On Sept 4, Rubio introduced the Preventing Antisemitic Harassment on Campus Act, stating that “colleges and universities claim to value diversity and inclusion but have failed to address dangerous antisemitic incidents that have been plaguing campuses for the past year.”
Rubio’s past statements and moves have led to fears that he as Trump’s foreign policy chief would advocate for ratcheting up support for Israel’s campaign to finish off Hamas and Hezbollah, annex the West Bank, and normalise ties with the Middle Eastern states to isolate Iran, which Tel Aviv considers as the only potent threat to its existence.
Sinophobia
In Rubio’s views, China is the greatest geopolitical challenge the US faces in the 21st century, a sentiment reflected in the hawkish and provocative language he uses in his statements. Rubio has accused Beijing of “stealing technology, exploiting capitalism, and coercing companies,” arguing that Beijing’s actions have deindustrialised America, eroded American jobs, and monopolised critical industries in its bid to dislodge the US as the world’s dominant power. Rubio proposes that Washington must confront Beijing on six fronts: geopolitics, diplomacy, culture, technology, commerce, and trade.
In a Sept 20 opinion piece for the New York Post, Rubio raised alarms about the purported closure of industries in Latin America, disruptions in Asian markets, and the capture of the European EV market by Chinese overproduction. He argued that “free trade” with China has been a “one-way ticket to broken industries, bankrupt businesses, and widespread unemployment,” leading to the US becoming increasingly dependent on a “power-hungry dictatorship.”
Rubio has introduced a series of China-specific legislations. On June 12, he proposed the Confronting CCP Malign Influence Act of 2024, warning of the dangers a Beijing-led new world order could pose. He was also behind the Stopping Adversarial Tariff Evasion Act on Sept 19, which seeks to apply tariffs on goods made by “foreign adversaries,” regardless of where they are produced. He criticised China for bypassing US laws designed to protect American industries, saying that “America cannot afford to surrender its economic future to Beijing.”
Rubio has also been vocal about purported human rights violation in Xinjiang region. On Sept 19, he introduced the No Funds for Forced Labor Act, which would require US officials at international financial institutions to oppose projects involving forced labor, particularly in Xinjiang. On Oct 31, Rubio wrote to US officials demanding that the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act be fully implemented.
Rubio’s stance on China is so hawkish and confrontationist that he is averse to any engagement with Beijing. On Aug 27, he condemned National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to China as an “embarrassing attempt to lower tensions” with a regime he believes poses serious threats to the US and its allies. Rubio also took exceptions to Brazil’s invitation to the Chinese People's Liberation Army to participate in the “Operation Formosa” military exercises alongside US forces, warning that it would allow China to exploit American military strategies.
Rubio was also at the forefront of efforts to portray the TikTok app as a national security threat, claiming in an April 22 statement that the US had been “dangerously shortsighted” in allowing a Chinese-controlled company to operate one of the most popular apps in America. He called for a review of TikTok by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) and called for the US to respond more swiftly to similar threats in the future.
Rubio’s outspoken, hardline approach to China has earned him the moniker of “anti-China pioneer” from the Chinese media, with Beijing responding by imposing sanctions and a travel ban against him. By picking Rubio as his foreign policy czar, Trump has made his intention clear: he would scale up economic assaults on China through measures that could potentially trigger a global trade war.
Russophobia
There aren’t many Russia-related statements on Rubio’s webpage since Jan 2024. However, he considers Russia together with Iran and China as the “new axis” that seeks to undermine America’s global leadership role. Rubio has repeatedly called Vladimir Putin an enemy of America and its European allies, and has co-sponsored a slew of punitive measures targeting Moscow. “We know that the Russians have been involved in attempted sabotage operations throughout Europe as a way of inflicting costs on nations in Europe that are assisting Ukraine,” he said in a Nov 6 statement.
Nonetheless, he believes the US has to deal with Putin to avoid escalation of the Ukraine conflict into a nuclear apocalypse. “I think Vladimir Putin is an enemy of the United States. By the same token, I assure you,…any future American president…is going to have to interact with Vladimir Putin, because he has the largest nuclear stockpile in the world, because he has one of the world’s largest militaries…,” he said on Oct 27 Fox News show.
At the same time, Rubio, like his would-be boss Trump, also believes Volodymyr Zelenskyy has for too long exploited America’s generosity in return for the promise of an elusive battleground victory against Russia – and it needs to end now. “Ultimately, what we’re financing here is a stalemate, and it needs to be brought to an end. I believe common sense should prevail,” he said in a statement this month. “You don't have to be a fan of Vladimir Putin to want to end the war.”
During his presidential campaign and after his election, Trump has repeatedly promised to end the Ukraine war diplomatically, and has already prepared a possible peace plan. However, it might not be easy for Trump and Rubio to push for a negotiated end to a war that the neocon establishment seeks to prolong for the survival of the American military-industrial complex. And this was made known to Trump when President Biden in his swan song move authorized Ukraine to use American-supplied long-range missile deep inside Russia – something Putin has warned would be akin to crossing the “red line” between proxy war and direct war. He wasn’t bluffing. A day after Ukraine fired American ATACMS missiles, Moscow’s tactical forces unleashed a new hypersonic, medium-range Oreshnik missile on Ukraine in a stark warning to the US and its allies. Oreshnik can hit targets throughout Europe and, according to Moscow, “there are no means of counteracting it in the world.”
Factoring in Indo-Pak
It’s a common perception that Pakistan may not be a priority for the Trump administration, which has more pressing concerns on its agenda. In the absence of significant geostrategic motivations, Trump is likely to engage with Pakistan on a transactional basis, particularly in the realm of counterterrorism. There is a possibility that Trump may withdraw the current assistance under the “Green Alliance” framework, which focuses on water management, clean energy, and climate-smart agriculture, especially given his stance on climate change, which he has dismissed as “mythical,” “nonexistent,” and “expensive hoax.”
Looking at Rubio’s views and votes listed on his webpage, it appears that he may approach Pakistan primarily through the lens of China and Iran – given his obsession with the two – with India possibly also in the mix. Rubio views India as a crucial US ally in containing China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. On July 25, he introduced the US-India Defense Cooperation Act, calling for enhanced US support to India in defending its sovereignty against “China’s aggressive territorial expansion.”
The legislation envisages besides other things “equal treatment of India alongside other key US allies like Japan, Israel, South Korea, and NATO members when it comes to technology transfers. It also mandates a report to the US Congress on Pakistan’s use of offensive force – including terrorism and proxy warfare –against India, and would bar Pakistan from receiving US security assistance if found to have supported such activities.