Trump 2.0 and the world

Trump's comeback is being labeled as an unprecedented win against deep state and establishment in the US. While it is questionable that a deep state that has been making and unmaking deep states around the world has been defeated at home. What needs to be observed in the coming weeks is whether Trump lives up to the expectations people have in him.

The greatest expectation Trump has given is his promise to end the Ukraine and Gaza wars; just like in 2019, defying the Pentagon and even defying the Arab allies, Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. During the campaign he has been repeatedly saying that he "could settle the war between Russia and Ukraine in one day" if he was elected president again. And in the case of Israel, he has talked to Netanyahu on phone and told him "I want the Gaza War over by the time I enter office."

Trump vowing to keep war hawks away from his cabinet is all good, but that doesn't mean everyone is ready to take him on face value - especially in the Middle East. The Arabs certainly remember him as a promise-breaker, and soon after Trump got his victory, Saudi Army Chief flew to Tehran to meet his counterpart there and advance military and defence cooperation.

The following day, they were all in the Arab Islamic Summit in Riyadh, where the Saudi crown prince backed Iran, and accused Israel of genocide in Gaza. This means that Trump will have to face a new Middle East in his second term, a Middle East that is no more divided on the Shia-Sunni lines, and a Middle East that is not ready to embrace the Abraham Accords before a free Palestinian state is established.

As for Iran, on the one hand it has urged Trump to reassess the policy of "maximum pressure", and on the other, it is maintaining a strong deterrence via strong counterattacks by Hezbollah and Ansarullah and by testing its new ICBM in its space centre in Shahroud.

North Korea celebrated Trump's victory by firing its ICBM with the longest flight recorded yet. And Russia has reportedly put thousands of its troops on Iranian soil, just to tell Israel and its friends who they will be facing if they dare attack Iran.

The question is that Trump might be willing to go for 'peace over land' and force President Zelenskyy to end its war with Russia with give-and-take, but would he be willing to end the Gaza War on the terms of the Arabs, and not on Israel's. It's the same Trump who allowed the US embassy to be relocated to Jerusalem, and who supported Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights.

Coming to trade policy, those state with whom the US has a trade deficit are most prone to Trump's sanctions and tariff regimes. These include China, Mexico, Germany, Vietnam, Taiwan and others. China, the prime target of Trump's previous Trade War, seems to have prepared well for a Trump comeback and has gathered new market in the Global South.

According to reports, China's exports to the Global South and BRICS countries in March was $1.6 trillion a year, while the same for the US, Europe and Japan combined was $1.38 trillion. Trump will thus have to reassess how hard his tariffs will hit a China who has found new partners in Central Asia, the Middle East, South America and Africa.

While China is bracing for 60% to 100% tariffs, the EU is also bracing for a 10% to 20% hit. In 2018 they were hit by 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminum. Allianz Trade has predicted that if the US, based on a 'contained trade war', imposes a modest 25% tariff hike on China and 5% on the rest of the world, a combined loss in global exports will be up to $135 billion in 2025-26. This would be the least price humanity would have to pay for 'making America great again'.

Back here in Pakistan, there has been a lot of rejoice in Trump's reelection. There has been a delusional thinking that Trump would support the true democratic spirit and undo the wrongs committed upon the opposition PTI and its leader. There has been a loss of memory regarding the fact that the PTI got into all this trouble because of the US meddling in Pakistan's domestic politics in the first place.

Now, one should reckon that Trump, who would be focusing on his America First policies, would never want a Pakistan that would see the US eye to eye, with an absolute will. Pakistan should understand that Trump has barely defeated his own country's deep state, and he will most likely work to mold that deep state to his liking and strengthen it for himself - not eliminate it. Nor will it benefit him to eliminate other deep states, especially if they secure his economic interests.

One should remember that the American people have voted for Trump because they had lost trust in the status quo democratic institutions that have systematically dragged the people beneath a burgeoning $31 trillion debt. With a stalled industrial growth, depletion of jobs and declining economy, the US is in need of its own saviour. Trump needs to 'make America great again' because it has lost its greatness and because it is in shatters.

Therefore, the advice would be: don't wait for America to be great again to help you become great; that will never happen. You will become great only on your own, with your own will and with your own might. Because the economic and strategic gurus in Washington have only one game in their playbook, and that is the zero-sum game - a game wherein winning only means defeating everyone else!