US presidential election - why Trump won

Contrary to many pundits, political analysts and majority in the mainstream US media, Republican candidate former President Donald Trump again won the presidential race. He has now defeated two women candidates in a row. Trump won comfortably, unlike his past win against his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton in 2016, putting to rest the worries of not accepting election results and the fears of ensuing violence. This all was in the backdrop of a very divided America, bitterly polarised politics, mean sloganeering and smear campaign by both sides, and events in the global arena like wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, climate change, a rising China, etc.

Besides Trump and Harris, Jill Steen of the Green Party, Chase Oliver of Libertarian Party, independent candidate Robert Kennedy and others contested the election. As results continue to pour in at the time of our going to the press, Jill Steen has bagged 730,118 votes (0.5%), Kennedy, in alliance with Trump, bagged 705,047 votes (0.5%), Chase Oliver got 620,982 votes (0.4%), while other candidate got 367,998 votes (0.2%). These candidates have won no electoral college vote. Trump leads with 50.2% of popular vote (75.45 million), winning 312 ECV out of 538; Kamala Devi Harris ended up with 48.1% vote (71.87 million) and 226 ECV. The magic number in ECV is 270.

US presidential election is traditionally reliant upon the direction of voting patterns and results in the swing states, with voters roughly split equally among both parties. These are identified for each election. For 2024, CBS News identified seven battleground states like Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) as swing states with indicated ECVs. Their cumulative 93 EC votes were critical to tilting the national results, as all other states have pretty much decided political and electoral affiliations in favour of either Democratic Party or the GOP (The Grand Old Party i.e. the Republican Party). Trump won in all seven states.

Why did he do so well despite his protracted and almost constant vilification in mainstream media, the dislike of liberals, the deep state's apprehension, his own not very careful, articulate electioneering, and his remarks and statements? We shall explore some answers.

First, his personality. At 78 years, waiting out Joe Biden presidency, keeping himself abreast and in the news, then relentlessly campaigning and convincing the undecided voters to vote for him, is remarkable. NYT reported that Trump's campaign was a "blend of comedy, fury, optimism, darkness and cynicism". And that resonated with voters. "He gets us" some voters opined. Suburban mothers, military personnel, farmers, Evangelicals, Bitcoiners, college football fans, firemen, blue collar workers and ordinary folks from all over America saw in him an underdog that was challenging and fighting an elitist America, badly out of touch with the real America. Someone who spoke his mind without fear or favour, irrespective of the authenticity of his iterations. Throughout his campaign, he discussed ordinary matters with ordinary folks, that mattered in their lives…taxes and inflation, in countless rallies, and other meetings, unlike the scripted appearances of his opponent. His July assassination attempt, and his defiant yell of 'fight' after being hit, clicked with free spirited America. The tough talking rich, if amoral politician, was also tough in crisis. His bloodied mug shot on T-shirts captivated America.

He made inroads especially in rural 'religious right' when he stated that God saved his life. Even women considered him 'chosen by God to vanquish evil' in a preordained victory. He expertly deployed Christian iconography about martyrdom. His careless statements, propagated by his adversaries, worked the other way round. When he described Milwaukee a 'horrible city', citizens, instead of taking offence, agreed with him on the City's situation. Many voted for him despite the "hateful" and "tacky" things he had been saying, even if to amuse the audience.

Emphasising 'America First', Trump played upon America's fear of a migrant deluge, whom he described as "child rapists", "pet eating" and "bloodthirsty predators". His social media team would foster this fear by manipulating imagery of "brown-skinned people marching on hospitals and preying on women". And he had an audience in America, who put the blame for inflation, high taxation and tightening domestic budgets on such unwelcome foreigners, under an inept government. When needed, he would blend his dark messages with sunny optimism like in Bronx, the poorest congressional district in the US, where he emphasised the poor to "think to the future, not to the past, but learn from the past"; or in Manhattan to the Black and Hispanic voters to "pull together as Americans", irrespective of the skin colour. He masterly and cheerfully played to the gallery.

The ultra-rich New Yorker would be the second non-establishment president, after John F Kennedy. He masterfully deflected criticism on abortion, opposing a federal abortion ban, instead calling it a state issue with some nuances. This helped cultivate favour with women voters. Although, his avowed policy on immigration and foreign students raised many eyebrows. Trump's propensity for quick-fixes and abrupt decision-making makes him a decisive and bold, if impulsive leader. These predilections would set America's foreign policy agenda.

Some analysts appreciate his fighting spirit, dubbing the election a "contest between Trump and the Rest" including not only Democrats like Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, Hillary Clinton, and generals like Mark Milley and Gen John Kelly but also the intelligence community (the Deep State), the economists and most of the skeptical and scared Western World, especially NATO…and more. His victory is also a public indictment and recurring vote of no confidence in America's leadership and institutions, shaping and guiding public and private life since the end of Cold War.

He keeps challenging beliefs on which authority rests, considering the 'nation's political orthodoxies' bankrupt. Kamala lost being a scion representing such vilified orthodoxy. He was voted to power by a restless and angry demography, wanting him to demolish Washington's political cartel and its 'notions of expertise'. His victory is a punitive verdict on authorities of all kinds that opposed him.

Although a harbinger of 'creative disruption' and 'alternative politics', Trump may find radical change to governance difficult, limited and frustrating due to constitutional checks and balances. If 'Make America Great Again (MAGA)' failed in making enduring and positive changes in good measure, it may bring in the same old political elite or empower the American Left…continues.