Trump's return: uncertain prospects for Pakistan

ISLAMABAD:

When Donald Trump won the elections for the first time in November 2016, he didn't take long to pick up the secure line and speak to the then prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

The Trump-Nawaz conversation transcript released by the PM Office was unprecedented and contrary to the Republican leader's stance on Pakistan during his election campaign. Much to the surprise of many, Trump described Pakistan as a "great country".

This was the same Trump, who during his election rallies, questioned the role of Pakistan in the fight against terrorism and also spoke about the country's nuclear weapons program.

But that was Trump being Trump, whose unconventional leadership style brings with him unpredictable policies.

One of the reasons Trump even didn't wait for the formal oath to speak to Nawaz was that tens of thousands of US troops stationed in Afghanistan were stuck in an unwinnable war. Trump, who spoke against the foreign wars and termed the Afghanistan invasion a blunder, wanted to withdraw all of his military men sooner than later. But that was not possible without Pakistan's help.

Trump, however, lived up to his election promise by cutting off all military and civil aid to Pakistan, though such assistance had already dwindled from Washington.

Nevertheless, he sought Pakistan's help in securing a deal in Afghanistan in order to save some grace for the US. That was when he directly approached the then prime minister Imran Khan. Pakistan was quick to pounce on that opportunity as Afghanistan has often been the driving force behind ties with the US.

Living up to his unconventional style of governance, Trump opened a direct channel of communication with Imran Khan. Of course, those contacts were helped by Trump's close aide Senator Lindsey Graham, who was a great admirer of Imran.

The direct communication between Pakistan and the White House led to Trump's invitation to Imran Khan to visit Washington. People within the American establishment were not in favour of granting that honor to Pakistan even before the Afghan deal was yet to be sealed.

Trump, however, went ahead with his invitation and hosted Imran, calling him a "great friend." They both subsequently met on several other occasions. But those exchanges failed to bring any substantive change in the Pakistan-US relationship.

When Joe Biden took over the White House in 2020, he didn't even bother to make a courtesy call with the Pakistani prime minister, reinforcing the perception that Washington no longer considered Islamabad top foreign policy priority. The subsequent withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 further diminished Pakistan's importance in the eyes of Washington.

Between 2016 and now, much has changed. Today, the world is far more volatile than during the first term of Trump as President. There is an ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which Europe considers as an existential threat. Then there is a simmering crisis in the Middle East. Israel continues with its genocidal policies in Gaza, West Bank and now in Lebanon.

Against this backdrop, what does Trump's election win mean for Pakistan? Foreign policy experts feel that despite optimism in the Tehreek-e-Insaf camp, the fact remains that the Trump administration has tons of other issues to deal with and Pakistan seems not on the priority list.

Supporters of Imran are celebrating his victory, hoping that he would secure the release of his "good friend."

"I wouldn't rule out some tweets or other public references to Khan's plight," Michael Kugelman, Washington based South Asian expert told The Express Tribune hours after Trump swept the polls.

"If his administration is led to believe, as PTI supporters fervently hope it will, that the Biden administration bears some blame for Khan's situation, he may well be happy to give voice to that. But the idea of Trump acting as Khan's advocate and trying to help him – that strikes me as wildly off the mark," he added.

He added: "It greatly overstates the importance that Trump attributes to Khan. Not to mention, Trump is not known for letting considerations about rights and democracy in other countries drive his foreign policy."

The victory of Trump could throw serious challenges for Pakistan on the foreign policy and economic front, according to some experts. For example, Trump has promised to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, something that may trigger a new trade war, negatively impacting the global economy.

The incoming president may also target President Xi's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which Pakistan is part of. Given Trump often deals such intricate matters directly; his administration may push Pakistan to maintain a distance from China.

Trump previously warned that he would not let International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts to pay off the Chinese debt. Some experts fear that Washington may use the IMF leverage to arm-twist Pakistan on China.

"If Trump recognises a window of opportunity with Pakistan and China, seeing how the relationship is facing some tensions over the Chinese security concerns, his administration could well try to leverage that," Kugelman remarked.

He said when Trump was president, his administration made a big pitch for bringing investment to Pakistan to counter CPEC. But Trump may prefer to focus such energies in other spaces, in countries with less close ties to Beijing, he noted.

"Not to mention, Trump has that unpredictability factor. He could well decide to extend an olive branch to Beijing and try to reach an understanding," Kugelman maintained.

When it comes to the overall relationship, he was of the view that Trump wouldn't embrace some of the pathways the Biden administration used, such as climate change cooperation.

"Trade may be a possibility, but like the Biden administration he may not be comfortable with expanding commercial cooperation until there are more indications of longer term economic stabilization. Counterterrorism may offer some openings, but he likely won't want to phase back in the security aid that he froze early in his first term," he said.

"On the whole, I'd expect continuity with the Biden approach-there will be efforts to pursue a cordial but limited partnership, guided by the more narrowly defined interests that have marked the US approach to Pakistan since the military withdrawal from Afghanistan," according to Kugelman.