Why is Donald Trump Winning? Here Are 3 Key Insights
Despite votes still being counted, several emerging trends are becoming apparent in the 2024 election. Former President Donald Trump is once again demonstrating his ability to strengthen Republican support in already red areas of the country.
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Meanwhile, in the suburbs—historically favorable for Democrats—those gains appear to be inconsistent this time around. Additionally, early indications suggest that Trump has made significant inroads with voters of color, particularly within Latino communities.
While exit polls, which are commonly used by commentators and journalists to analyze electoral trends nationally, are often unreliable, we can identify some clear trends emerging so far.
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Trump's dominance in rural areas was anticipated, but the extent to which he has improved on his 2020 margins was uncertain. Early in the night, he garnered substantial support in states like Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, and North Carolina, and this trend persisted. In rural counties across Pennsylvania, for example, the results indicated that Trump was able to boost both turnout and his support margin within GOP strongholds.
A prime example of this rural surge can be seen in Lackawanna County, where President Joe Biden hails from. The county swung 5.6 points to the right compared to 2020, even though Kamala Harris still seemed on track to win it by the narrowest of margins.
2. The Suburban Shift Toward Democrats Has Stalled
To counterbalance expected GOP margins in rural areas, Democrats have relied not only on winning urban centers but also on gaining traction in surrounding suburbs. These suburbs have been trending Democratic since 2016, but it is unclear if that leftward shift has continued.
The first clear indication of trouble in suburban areas was evident in northern Virginia’s Loudoun County, a suburb of Washington, D.C., known for its college-educated voter base. Joe Biden won it by approximately 25 points in 2020; however, Harris appears to have secured a victory there by only about 17 points this year.
In Indiana’s Hamilton County, which is seen as an early indicator due to its proximity to Indianapolis suburbs, Harris was trailing Trump by around 6 points, nearly matching Biden's performance in 2020 (Trump +7). Nonetheless, other suburbs across the country continued to reflect a Democratic trend, as seen in the suburban counties surrounding Atlanta, where Harris was on track to perform slightly better than Biden did in 2020, increasing the Democratic margins in Cobb and Gwinnett counties by approximately one point each.
3. Erosion of Democratic Support Among Voters of Color, Particularly Latinos
Pre-election polling suggested Trump was poised to achieve historic gains in support from nonwhite voters. Although national data remains scarce (and early exit polls are often unreliable), there were noticeable shifts in areas with substantial Latino populations.
Florida stands out as a clear example. The state moved significantly toward the Republican side, with its Latino electorate following suit. Miami-Dade County, once a reliable Democratic stronghold with a large Cuban American demographic, swung for Trump by double digits. Similarly, Osceola County, home to a significant Puerto Rican population, flipped for Trump after Biden had won it by 14 points previously. According to Equis Research’s analysis, cities with large Puerto Rican and Cuban communities, like Kissimmee and Hialeah, experienced a substantial decline in Democratic support.
It’s worth noting that Florida's Latino population is unique compared to those in other regions, being much more diverse in terms of national origin, and had already been shifting toward Republicans since 2020.
Exit polls in Georgia
Similar trends were observed in South Texas, where Trump not only maintained his margins in counties he won in 2020, like Zapata, but also flipped two additional counties (Starr and Cameron) and ran nearly even with Harris in Hidalgo and Webb counties. National exit polls, despite their unreliability, appear to depict a broader trend of decreasing Democratic support among Latinos, with early results indicating Democrats barely secured a majority, in stark contrast to exit polls from 2020 that showed Biden winning roughly two-thirds of this demographic.